On November 3rd, Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly higher, oscillated and finished slightly higher across the board. Industry analysts believe that the domestic spot prices continue to remain strong, but the adjustment of alumina prices about the aluminum rebound space.
On Friday, November 3rd, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHE) aluminum main 701 contract opened at 19,900 yuan and closed at 19,780 yuan, up 80 yuan; the spot 611 contract closed at 20,500 yuan, up 240 yuan.
Bette Futures analyst Gao Ye believes that the Shanghai aluminum contraction, short-term temporary balance.
Shanghai spot prices rose by 150 yuan to 20,775 yuan/ton. Guangdong Nanhai stocks continued their upward trend, the supply of goods tended to depreciate, and local inventories fell to a level of less than 13,000 tons. Traders' reluctance to sell increased the tight supply situation. Market transactions The price range is between 20,750 and 20,950 yuan/ton.
Currently, London's short-term support for aluminum is around 2680 to 2700. The upper-end target is located at 2950/3000. If this price is reached, it will quickly sell off.
The dollar fell on the 2nd, after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet suggested that the ECB may raise interest rates in December. Investors did not respond to the economic data released by the United States. According to the data, the US factory orders in September increased less than expected, and the non-agricultural productivity in the third quarter was unchanged from the previous year, while the increase in unit labor costs exceeded expectations. The non-agricultural employment report to be released by the U.S. government will show that non-agricultural employment in October increased by 125,000, up from 51,000 in September.
Shanghai Aluminum suffered panic selling under the negative effect of tax adjustment, but it was effectively supported on the important technical support line of 19400. At the same time, this interval made it possible to restore London Aluminum's parity to the 7th line, which is a normal and reasonable level.
Shanghai Aluminium will work in concert with London Aluminum and domestic aluminum stocks. The pressure lies at 20200 and 20800, supporting the 19400 line.
China Securities Futures analyst Yang Guoying believes that due to strong domestic and foreign demand in the short term, it is expected that the rising trend of Lon Aluminum will remain unchanged.
India National Aluminum Company once again raised its aluminum ingot sales prices. National aluminum president Pradhan said in its headquarters in Bhubaneswar, central and eastern India, that their aluminum ingot sales prices will be raised by 8,000 rupees (US$178) to 133,850 rupees per metric ton, a rate of 6.3%. National Aluminum is the second largest aluminum producer in India. In October, they once increased the price of aluminum ingots by Rs. 5,700/t, up 5%; Pradhan believes that L&A will be driven by US and Chinese demand at the end of the year. Before hitting a high of $3,000/ton. At the same time, on November 1st, National Aluminum’s competitor India’s larger aluminum producer Hindalco also raised its aluminum ingot sales price by Rs 9,000 to Rs 137,750/metric ton.
The forecasting department of the State Information Center released a macroeconomic research report. In the fourth quarter, the Chinese economy will continue to operate at a high level. The annual GDP growth rate will reach 10.5%. The report believes that in the third quarter of 2006, China’s macro-control policies initially contained a momentum of China’s rapid shift to overheating. However, in the fourth quarter and 2007, management must continue to strengthen and improve macro-control and accelerate institutional reforms. We will increase the effectiveness of macroeconomic controls, implement prudent fiscal policies and moderately tight monetary policies, insist on strict controls on investment in fixed assets, do not relax, actively expand consumption in urban and rural areas, strive to adjust the structure of imports and exports, and accelerate the transformation of economic growth patterns. Promote the economic operation into the overall coordinated and sustainable development track.
The author believes that at present, the fundamentals of Lum Aluminium are relatively large, short-term domestic and foreign demand is strong, and the upward trend has not changed.
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