Although the steel market is still immersed in the shadow of huge losses, the first-quarter forecast that has already begun to appear seems to bring a spring to the harsh winter of the steel industry. As of April 12, four steel companies have released their first-quarter performance reports or forecasts, and their results have turned into losses.
However, the industry believes that iron ore prices are still strong due to high output and inventory pressure, and the steel industry is not optimistic.
Turning losses into profits
*ST Angang, which announced the first-quarter results forecast, said that the company expects a profit of 550 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, compared with a loss of 1.888 billion yuan in the same period last year. It is understood that in order to reverse the loss situation for two consecutive years, the company has set a profit target for 2013, and in the fourth quarter of last year, it began to study and formulate measures from various aspects such as production operation plan, raw fuel resource allocation, and steel sales strategy. Through the above work, the company's operating performance has gradually improved since the fourth quarter of last year, and in December last year, it turned into a profit in the month.
Sangang Shuguang’s performance forecast indicates that it is expected to make a profit of 24.67 million to 25.68 million yuan in the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 630%-660% over the same period of the previous year. The main reason for the increase in performance was that the company's operating revenue in the first quarter increased year-on-year, and the cost of major products decreased compared with the same period of last year, resulting in an increase in gross profit margin. Baosteel executives also said at the 2012 annual performance briefing that steel prices rebounded in the first quarter of 2013, but because the original fuel prices are still at a high level, the price of minerals has increased by more than 50% compared with the lowest point of last year. Therefore, the company's operating performance in the first quarter was generally stable.
*ST Steel, which released its first-quarter results today, also said that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter was 34.55 million yuan, an increase of 110.41%.
For the improvement of the listed steel company's performance in the first quarter of 2013, analysts believe that the rise in steel prices and the decline in steel costs have contributed to the steel company's turnaround in the first quarter.
The market outlook is not optimistic
However, the recovery of the first quarter results has not become the turning point of the steel industry boom. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventories rose sharply in March, and the social stocks of the five major varieties in 22 cities reached 15.565 million tons, a record high, an increase of 2.902 million tons from February, an increase of 22.9% from the previous month, of which the market inventory was 14.146 million tons. , the chain increased by 23.8%, the port inventory of 1.419 million tons, an increase of 14.4%. The steel social inventories continue to increase, and the late destocking pressure is very high.
According to the latest statistics from the customs, China imported 26.55 million tons of iron ore in March, up 14.4% from the previous month and up 2.7% year-on-year. The average import price was 139.3 US dollars/ton, up 7.1% from the previous month. The monthly trend showed a rising trend; the cumulative import of iron ore in January-March was 184.48 million tons, which was the same as that of the same period of last year; the average price of imported iron ore in January-March was US$130.1/ton.
Relevant institutions believe that in April, the steel market has expectations for demand volume, and steel mills are unlikely to reduce production. From the historical perspective, general crude steel output will reach a high point in May and June, and iron ore is expected in the second quarter. Demand remains high. Imports of iron ore will continue to increase in April, and import prices are firm.
In terms of steel prices, Baosteel introduced the May price policy on the 11th, and all varieties were opened, and the hot and cold rolling, silicon steel and subordinate Meigang galvanized varieties increased the order price by 100-200 yuan/ton. Insiders said that after the Spring Festival, the domestic steel market all the way down, finally ushered in the end of March and early April to stabilize the market. Baosteel, as the leader of domestic steel enterprises, bears the brunt of the stability of market confidence during the critical period of the April-May market.
The industry insiders said that it is understood that the price rules of other leading steel mills in May are still expected to be lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton, while the serious varieties with upside down in March have a recovery policy of 200-300 yuan/ton, which may affect the short-term market. There is a certain impact. The medium and long-term steel market is subject to high output and inventory pressures, while the economic trend in March-April is relatively low, and the industrial operation is lower than expected. Therefore, it is prudent to expect that the steel market in March-May will have a slightly weaker room for a narrower shock.
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