Abstract From 2009 to 2012, the global PV module prices have dropped by 27% annually, and the system has dropped by 19% annually. In 2010, the price of photovoltaic modules accounted for 45% to 60% of the price of photovoltaic power generation systems, which is the most important component of the price of photovoltaic power generation systems. And now, all...
From 2009 to 2012, global PV module prices have fallen by an average of 27% per year, and the system has declined by an average of 19% annually. In 2010, the price of photovoltaic modules accounted for 45% to 60% of the price of photovoltaic power generation systems, which is the most important component of the price of photovoltaic power generation systems. Today, global component prices have fallen by 80%, and components are no longer the only luxury in power station construction. At present, in the cost structure of photovoltaic power plants, the proportion of hardware costs including components and inverters has fallen sharply. Especially in developed countries with high labor costs, hardware costs have become "pediatrics", correspondingly "soft" The cost is still high, and reducing the "soft cost" has become a top priority for promoting the "hard growth" of the global photovoltaic industry. Hardware costs drop into "narrow alley"
According to the latest PVInsights sample statistics, as of September 28, the average price of polysilicon has dropped to 18.15$/kg, and the average price of crystalline silicon components is 0.700$/watt. In terms of polysilicon prices, the price of 18.15$/kg will definitely cause Chinese polysilicon companies to continue to lose money. Taking GCL, the largest polysilicon company in China, as an example, the average production cost of polysilicon in the first half of the year was 17.3$/kg. If the operating cost is added, the polysilicon price will remain in the range of 20~25$/kg. . In the first half of 2013, GCL-Poly recorded a net loss of HK$917 million, again indicating that its product prices are still at a low level. Polysilicon is at the forefront of the photovoltaic industry, and its price fluctuations are directly transmitted to the downstream market, which in turn affects the installed cost of the entire photovoltaic system. So, how much will the price of polysilicon affect the hardware cost of PV power plants in the future?
On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, and the preliminary decision decided to implement temporary countervailing measures for imported solar grade polysilicon originating in the United States. Earlier, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce officially began to impose anti-dumping duties on polysilicon manufactured in the United States and South Korea. The author believes that with China's suppression of the dumping momentum of foreign polysilicon enterprises, China's polysilicon prices will rebound to a certain extent at the end of 2013, but the degree of rebound will be very small, which will only benefit the four or five companies that still maintain production. Others have already The company that has stopped production still has no possibility of returning to work. China's domestic polysilicon production was 28,000 tons in the first half of the year. It is expected that the annual output will increase to around 70,000 to 80,000 tons, which is stronger than the industry's previous forecast of 50,000 tons.
According to the forecast, the price of polysilicon products will not fluctuate drastically. It is a good choice to maintain at 20~22$/kg. This judgment is mainly based on two considerations: First, the Ministry of Commerce does not have polysilicon for Korea and Germany. Enterprises are "successful to kill", they still have a lot of dumping conditions, but they have suppressed the arrogance of American companies. Therefore, some Chinese battery component companies will turn to domestic orders, increase the sales price of polysilicon products and the operating rate of enterprises, but a large amount of polysilicon is still dependent on imports. Second, rising polysilicon prices will exacerbate the cost pressures of battery component companies, “eat†their efforts in non-silicon costs, forcing them to either raise the price of their products or endure sustained losses. In short, polysilicon is an important part of the “hard cost†of photovoltaics, and its price decline has been very limited, and there will even be a small increase in the future.
However, in the long run, as the company continues to improve the improved Siemens process, the new silane fluidized bed technology is maturing. The silane fluidized bed method will solve the problem of improving the quality of granular silicon and continuous stable and efficient production, and by combining with the modification of the mature and improved Siemens method, the production cost of polysilicon will be reduced by half, and it is expected to become the main market supply in the next three years.
Compared with polysilicon, the component link seems to be less fortunate, and I firmly believe that if there is still a significant downside in component manufacturing costs in the future, the price of polysilicon will fall, because the non-silicon cost process of the component has a narrower improvement space. A maximum percentage reduction in single digits can only be achieved. At the same time, in the “cold winter†period of the past three years, component companies have also achieved a reduction in component costs by optimizing the supply chain, improving management, and improving operational efficiency. However, it has been very difficult to make a fuss in these areas.
At present, the production cost of mainstream component companies in the industry has dropped to below US$0.6/W, and some key enterprises have reached nearly US$0.5/W, which is expected to fall below US$0.5/W at the end of the year. According to a report released by GTMResearch, the annual cost of China's first-class crystalline silicon PV module manufacturers will drop by about 6.5% from 2012 to 2017, and the production cost will be reduced to 0.36 US dollars per watt by the end of 2017, which is significantly smaller than the decline in the past few years. .
However, in the next few years, the way to reduce production costs by improving component conversion efficiency is still full of uncertainty. The conversion efficiency of PV modules in China has remained within the range of 18% to 20%, and the increase rate has been very slow. It can even be said that the price of photovoltaic products has dropped drastically in recent years, and more is the result of vicious competition, which has little to do with technological progress. The technological advancement is precisely to fundamentally reduce the cost of power generation, and a little technological breakthrough will bring the dawn of the industry. It is understood that for every 0.1 percentage point increase in battery conversion efficiency, power generation costs can be saved by 5% to 7%. China's PV industry seems to have been stumbled on this tiny 0.1%, and 20% has become the threshold for every business.
The US SunPower company's battery conversion efficiency reached 22.6%, and Japan's Sharp Corporation's 21.5%, indicating that there is still room for improvement in China's PV module conversion efficiency, but it is not known when this time will come. In short, whether it is polysilicon or components, technology is needed to promote the cost reduction again. Other companies should have done it. At present, it is difficult to make a big breakthrough in the short-term, and only the toothpaste can be squeezed in detail. Apply strength.
"soft cost" saves deep space
In the previous analysis, whether it is polysilicon or photovoltaic modules, the space for cost reduction has been very narrow, and the subsequent decline will almost no longer affect the competitiveness of the photovoltaic industry. The whole industry needs to find another way while strengthening scientific research. effort.
According to media reports, the average installation cost of photovoltaic systems in Germany in the last one or two years is 2.6 US dollars / watt, the installation cost of photovoltaic systems in the United States doubled to 5.2 US dollars / watt, Japan is the only country where the installation cost of photovoltaic systems is higher than that of the United States. The current average cost is $5.9/watt. Compared with the component cost of about US$0.70/W, we can see that in countries with high manpower and other high costs, components are no longer a luxury for photovoltaic power generation, and the “soft cost†of the industry has greatly increased photovoltaic power generation. There are also a lot of deep digging space.
Even in China, although the cost of power plant components is much higher than that of developed countries, there are still many areas for improvement in terms of “soft costâ€. Take the 10MW western photovoltaic power station as an example. If you go to the “Road Stripâ€, the cost will need to be 600,000-700,000 yuan. If you buy the “Road†from others, then the price is 200. About 10,000. The investment of 10MW photovoltaic power station is only 10 million yuan, and the proportion of approval fees of 60~2 million yuan is already very large. Obviously there are many unreasonable places.
The application process for China's photovoltaic power plants, especially large-scale ground power plants, is cumbersome. The cost of applying for 10MW and applying for 50MW is almost the same. So many companies simply expand the scale of the application, and will sell beyond the unplanned scale, which has led to the occupation of roads and hackers. . According to incomplete statistics, about one-third of China's PV power plants are purchased from hackers, which invisibly increases the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants.
The same problem is more prominent in the United States. Sunrise released a report saying that the cost of photovoltaic power generation approval in some parts of the United States is $0.50/W, which means that installing a residential rooftop PV system requires $2,500 in approval fees. Considering the US system installation cost of 4 to 5 US dollars / watt, Sunrise's research results may not be sensational.
The results of the US RMI study may be more illustrative of this problem. RMI recently released a cost roadmap for US residential PV systems. The figure shows that when the installed cost of US residential PV systems was $8/WW in 2008, the hardware cost and “soft cost†were almost the same, both were about US$4. / watt; in 2013 when the US civilian photovoltaic system installed cost is 4.99 US dollars / watt hour, the hardware cost is 2.47 US dollars / watt, the software cost is 2.52 US dollars / watt. The research results of the National Photovoltaic Laboratory are basically consistent with RMI. It says that the “soft cost†still accounts for more than 50% of the total installed cost of residential PV in the United States, and the soft cost of each PV system is 10,000~15000. Dollar. For the US market, the industry still has a lot of room for mining in terms of “soft costâ€, and any improvement will bring about a significant decline in the cost of photovoltaic installations.
How to reduce the "soft cost" of photovoltaic power plants?
The “soft cost†of PV power plants mainly includes application, inspection, grid connection, financing and customer acquisition costs (including investigation, market and advertising costs). It is also necessary to reduce the “soft cost†of PV power plants.
First of all, from the perspective of financing, the financing cost of PV power plants in various countries is too high. This is contrary to the inherent attributes of low-yield and stable PV power plants. The main reason behind this is that banks lack understanding of PV power plants. With its own experience and knowledge, banks believe that PV power plants are still investment projects with certain risks, and the loan interest rates will be high. If the bank knows more about the PV power plant, the financing support for the power station will naturally be even greater.
Not long ago, a company called kWhAnalytics developed a comprehensive and accurate measurement system that would help investors to evaluate PV plants more easily, eliminating the need for investors to evaluate third-party service organizations. kWhAnalytics believes that this system can reduce the financing cost of photovoltaic power plants by 0.4 US dollars / watt.
Secondly, the customer's purchase cost is high, accounting for about 45% of the soft cost, and there is still a lot of room for decline. On the eve of China’s second batch of “Golden Sun†demonstration projects in 2012, some companies sent teams of hundreds of people to find suitable roofs, and the cost of public relations doubled. The “soft cost†of German PV is lower than that of the US. The reason is that German PV systems are mostly held by households, while the United States is mostly owned by third parties. They naturally have to pay more for finding suitable PV roofs. Some US companies such as CleanPower have developed software to find qualified PV projects online, or use software to let consumers estimate the cost and benefits of installing PV systems and increase consumers' desire to install new energy systems. These are all good ways to reduce the "soft cost."
For China, it is possible to gradually change the reporting system to a registration system, and to screen high-quality photovoltaic projects by reducing subsidies. The approval is simple, and the construction cost will be reduced. In short, reducing the "soft cost" must attract the attention of countries. Some scholars believe that the "soft cost" of the US photovoltaic system can be reduced from the current $2.52/W to the US$0.65/W in 2020. It is believed that China's PV will also have a lot of room for improvement in this respect. If the "soft cost" can be substantially reduced, the global PV competitiveness will be further enhanced.
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