The future of coal energy

The coal industry is an important basic energy industry in China. It is in an important strategic position in the energy supply structure in China and is also in a dominant position in the energy consumption structure. In 2007, coal accounted for 76% of the primary energy production and consumption structure in China. 69% is expected to account for 50% of primary energy production by 2050. With the rapid economic growth in China, it is expected that domestic coal demand will continue to grow rapidly during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the growth rate of China's gross national product is about 7.5-8.5%, and the average annual coal consumption growth is about 4-4.5%. Coal production capacity will continue to increase rapidly As the investment in fixed assets increases, the compound annual growth rate of raw coal output in China from 2001 to 2007 reached 15%. At the same time, as the projects are put into operation one after another in previous years, coal production will be released in a concentrated manner in the next few years, the industry's new production capacity will increase rapidly, coal production will continue to increase rapidly, and coal mine stocks will also increase substantially. In China, electricity, metallurgy, chemicals, and building materials are the four major coal-consuming industries. The four major industries have strong demand for coal consumption, and their demand accounts for about 70% of the total coal consumption. Among them, the coal consumption of the power industry (thermal coal) accounts for over 50% of the total consumption.

The higher prices seek to equalize coal as the industry with obvious policy implications. The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” outlines the guiding policy directions issued by the state within a few years. The eleventh five-year development plan outlines the first section of Chapter 12, which states: Strengthen the exploration of coal resources, make overall planning, and rationally develop, increase recovery rates, and reduce the impact of coal mining on the ecological environment. Build large coal bases, encourage coal companies to reorganize, and guide the formation of a number of enterprises with a capacity of 100 million tons. Encourage coal enterprises with advantages to implement coal-electricity joint operations or coal, electricity, and transportation operations. Adjust and reform small and medium-sized coal mines, and shut down coal mines that do not have safe production conditions and damage resources and environment. Strengthen the comprehensive management of coal mine gas and accelerate the development and utilization of coalbed methane. Strengthen the clean production and utilization of coal, encourage the development of comprehensive utilization of coal washing, low calorific value coal, and coal gangue power generation, and develop and popularize technologies such as efficient and clean combustion and flue gas removal. Develop coal chemical industry, develop coal-based liquid fuels, promote the construction of coal liquefaction demonstration projects in an orderly manner, and promote the deep processing and transformation of coal. Because the coal industry has the property of extractive industries, price is an important leading indicator of industry prosperity and profitability, and it is also the most direct and sensitive driver of profitability. The increase in costs and the renewed supply and demand tensions brought about by industrial policy adjustments may prompt prices. Constantly seek balance at higher points. Moreover, with the high prices of international crude oil and natural gas, the advancement of coal utilization technology, the development of new coal chemical industry and the “coal oil” industry, the position of coal in the future energy structure in China and the world will further rise rapidly.