Don't blindly go abroad to buy goods, let the head stocks digest for 5 months first.

Q: What is the recent business?

A: Very light, very painful!

This is a dialogue with a stone salesman when visiting the market. It seems to be a joke, but it is a true portrayal of the market of Shuitou Stone in the past month. Most of the stone merchants are rushing to "greet" this bleak situation.

37 ° C head winter: sales volume, price drop

XX Stone Industry Huang Zong

“I have been engaged in the stone business for 10 years in Shuitou. Even in the wave of the industry in 2014, I don’t think it’s so bleak recently! Although I’ve predicted that the market may not be optimistic in the second half of this year, I didn’t expect this day to be more than expected. Come earlier and more serious!"

XX stone Chen total

“The situation when a customer came to our factory last year to buy a board was: Kanban – check the quantity – pay the deposit, 10 minutes before and after the transaction. Last month, the same customer, the same quality board, he saw in the factory Look again, and to the outside market than to compare, return to directly bid 180 yuan / level, I am on the spot, the cost of this board must be 220 yuan / flat!"

XX Stone Industry Wu Zong

“I went to the big board market yesterday to find friends to drink tea. The first reaction I went in was: Have you lost power in the market? Otherwise why is there such a big market, not even a running crane? It’s terrible!”

All of the above voices are just a microcosm of the news that has received a lot of feedback from the market recently. So we specially selected the afternoon of the relatively large loading of vehicles, and ran the whole water head market. Through the visit, it was discovered that the so-called "blackout" phenomenon of General Manager Wu was really not a case. Business friends not only generally reacted to no business, but also apparently felt that the recent outflows in the market plummeted.

The macro policy is worse

It is reasonable to say that the third, fourth and fifth months after the spring season should be the peak season of the stone. On the one hand, it is the effect of Xiamen exhibition. On the other hand, with the construction of various parts of the country, especially in the northern part, due to the warming of the weather, it will be fully restored. Demand.

However, at the end of last year, with the frequent implementation of the “price limit room” policy across the country, developers have selectively slowed down the construction progress of pre-sale properties, in exchange for the time window for policy adjustment, while lengthening Just need to buy a group of water storage time. This made the original stone industry in the peak season like this in the past years, but it has further plunged into the embarrassing situation that demand is slowing down and there is no door to supply.

The environmental protection rectification of the local processing plants to further shut down, so that the original plan to send the local processing of the stone board after the purchase of the water head delayed delivery. "Our factory has just been shut down, when it will be resumed, it is still unknown. If you buy a board and pull it, you can't cut it out. You can only wait and see." A friend who made stone in the field said.

Prosperity behind the "three highs" phenomenon

With the return of water from all over the country since last year, the big board market has been mushrooming. According to the survey at the beginning of this year, the stock of stone in the market in Shuitou has reached the highest level in history since the beginning of this year; the number of water head traders has reached the highest level in history; of course, the operating cost of water head trade merchants along with shelf rent and staff salaries The impact of factors such as processing fees and freight rates will inevitably reach the highest historical value. The prosperity behind this "three highs" phenomenon has severely tested the sustainable and healthy development of the Shuitou stone industry.

The slab market will enter the shuffling stage this year.

In my opinion, the current big board market of Shuitou is saturated, and the answer is yes!

With the “return tide” coming to an end, and the new merchant tenancy contract expires in the first half of last year, the phenomenon of sublease, scale reduction and exit will directly test the shelf renewal rate, those markets with no location advantage and no highlights. It is inevitable that the merchants will be abandoned and the increase in the air-rent rate will occur. Only a few large-scale markets with obvious scale advantages, location advantages and service advantages can maintain high rents. It is foreseeable that most markets will bid farewell to the sight of “drought and flood protection” like last year, and even become a warehouse.

As for the topic that the rent of the water head shelf is generally high, the author believes that today is not the era of planned economy, the rent of new market shelves is high, and some old markets have rent increases. This is a free business law! As long as the market has the confidence, as long as there is a merchant's approval to pay, it is reasonable.

The chain reaction of overcapacity may have appeared in advance

Since the beginning of 2017, a large number of newly-operated merchants have poured into the water, and at the same time, many new faces have been added to foreign mines such as Turkey. A friend who returned to the water head for wholesale of slabs last year said: "When I was doing wholesale in the field, most of the stones were still purchased from the water head, but now I have done it myself. It is impossible to continue to purchase from my local counterparts. Otherwise, there is no advantage at all." The current situation of such customers becoming peers, fattening foreign mine owners, but further compressing the industry's average profit margin.

Last year in the Turkish mine, deliberately only placed three groups of materials, but shouted that the phenomenon of seven or eight purchases up the mountain bidding is frequently staged!

At the same time, the sea freight from Turkey to Xiamen Port alone rose from a container of 850 dollars to a peak of more than 1,400 dollars in 2017.

Last year, a large number of "new goods" that have been continuously flowing to the water head have been stranded until now, and it has become a stock. Or for each batch of goods, the board grade is about 20% good, and the grade A material is sold first. The remaining medium materials and a large number of tail goods are difficult to sell at cost price. The slow sales of the board, the pressure of inventory management, the cost of capital and the rent of the shelves, but also the store shelves can not be updated and turnover. This over-capacity overcapacity coupled with demand-side constraints has led to a recent decline in the market for water heads.

The stone industry needs marketing, but does not need price reduction promotion

The era of profiteering of stone has long passed. According to the author's investigation, most of the current stone slabs with a unit price of around 200 yuan, the average gross profit per square meter is around 20-30 yuan (not including labor costs, shelf rental costs and capital occupation). cost)! Our natural marble is recognized as a high-end decoration material by consumers. The standard of luxury homes is currently 70%. The price of large plates is much lower than the price of domestic mainstream brand tiles. This requires us to reflect on the industry. In the end, it was caused by the disorderly competition of our own industry, or the blind expansion of our own caused the inventory backlog.

In my opinion, the recent frequent promotion activities of industry companies are much more than in previous years. If it is aimed at marketing and promoting new varieties, or combining marketing to build corporate reputation, it is worthy of praise, but if it is to cut prices, and the low-cost vicious competition between peers, It may have a short-term effect on a single company, but for the stone industry, as well as for the variety that is promoted, it can only cause constant price declines and self-excavation.

Shantou to the end or the best way out for the water head industry

Will this year be the worst year? At the beginning of this article, as Mr. Huang said, "the worst in 14 years" is a bit too absolute, but at least according to the current market, it is necessary to expect the market to pick up as soon as possible, not only depends on the digestion of the inventory of 30-40 million square slabs. At the same time, the modest control of the source purchase volume is more related to the development trend of the water head stone industry in the second half of the year.

If you have a lot of stocks, and if there are a lot of products in your business, I would like to appeal to the country to avoid blindfolding, and to achieve information exchange and win-win development. It is best to achieve a consistent agreement on the control of the price of the homogenized variety of businesses, I believe that the ultimate benefit is the entire industry. Assume that, as it was last year, the peers went abroad to purchase high-priced competitions, and returned to the country to sell at a low price. They couldn’t move “your home is in the market, and mines in the mines on my home”, and that will only continue to lift the blocks.

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