Since the beginning of this year, the PV market has not been weak in the off-season, and its performance has exceeded expectations.
The reporter learned from the industry that on the one hand, overseas demand has accompanied the surge in the era of parity, and on the other hand, the domestic market is expected to usher in a new round of rushing with the introduction of this year’s electricity price subsidy policy, which made last year’s “5·31†photovoltaic After the New Deal, the price of the industry chain, which has been declining, stopped the decline. The price of silicon wafers began to rise from last week, and the relevant leading enterprises were full of orders.
According to PVInfoLink data, last week, domestic first-tier manufacturers continued to lift the price of silicon wafers, and the increase was more obvious. Second-tier enterprises were mostly implementing pre-contracts, or the spot supply was insufficient, and the price increase was slow. Judging from the current orders and the bargaining situation in February, the price increase of silicon wafers has been formed. The overall price difference has widened. The high price has reached 2.14 yuan per piece, and the average price has also increased to 2.08 yuan per piece. Due to tight supply and exchange rate, the average overseas price of wafers delivered in February increased to 0.28 US dollars per piece.
According to the data provided by SOLARZOOM, the price of polycrystalline silicon wafers rose last week. Domestic polycrystalline manufacturers raised their prices to 2.15 yuan per piece. The actual mainstream transaction price was 2.12 yuan to 2.14 yuan per piece, which was higher than before. Driven by the demand for polycrystalline silicon in overseas markets, polysilicon wafers have a certain upward momentum in the case of low polysilicon wafer production capacity and basically no inventory of various manufacturers. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafers is stable and the overall demand is good.
As the downstream of the industrial chain, the battery is also affected by the resonance of structural factors such as demand (driven by overseas demand, stocking before the lunar calendar, etc.) and supply (the polycrystalline production capacity is not high and the lunar calendar manufacturers are on holiday). The price has risen. The component market price is relatively firm.
"At present, the orders of first-line component manufacturers have been discharged to the second quarter. The mainstream first-line companies even said that the production lines in the past year are basically not on holiday, and the production is at full capacity," said SOLARZOOM.
Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Co., told the reporter that the current market is stable and the capacity utilization rate is very high. The company's silicon wafer cutting and battery segment production capacity is insufficient, requiring external resources.
"At present, the price is relatively good, and our production line is basically in a state of full production." A senior executive of the GCL-Poly Slicing Division told reporters.
A researcher said that 2019 is the first year of PV parity, and nearly 70% of overseas regions have achieved parity, while the domestic parity policy guarantees new scale. Although domestic policies have not yet landed, the industry will shift from a cycle to a growth as the industry already has the ability to afford parity and the manufacturing industry is shipping globally. It is expected that the global demand will be 120-130 GW, without excessive worry about single market volatility.
“The growth in demand and the increase in production capacity will make the supply and demand pattern better than expected.†The researcher said that the leading companies in the first quarter were not weak. On the one hand, demand from overseas has grown strongly; on the other hand, “5.11†accelerated the outdated production capacity. It is expected that with the seasonal demand from home and abroad, the supply and demand pattern will continue to improve, and the leading shipments and profitability are expected to exceed expectations.
In his view, the industry is still in a contrarian expansion at the stage of industrial clearing. With the release of new low-cost production capacity this year, the cost will be further diluted and the gross profit will be increased. When the industrial demand rises and the market share increases, the performance of leading enterprises is expected to grow strongly.
It is worth mentioning that in 2019, the PV concept stocks also performed well. Affected by the comprehensive factors such as the new PV price policy, the introduction of the new electricity price draft, the market supply and demand relationship and the change of the CSRC, the PV concept stocks have experienced many highs and the overall PV stock market has developed. From the stock price point of view, as of the close of this morning, the leading companies Tongwei shares, Longji shares, Sunshine power stock prices reached 10.41 yuan, 22.70 yuan and 11.32 yuan, respectively, compared to the opening of the 2019 (January 2) 1.86 yuan, 5.43 yuan and 3.64 yuan.
Take the stock market today as an example. Affected by the price increase of GCL-Poly and Zhonghuan shares, both companies rose by about 5%. Today, the intraday photovoltaic panel was collectively shaken, and Beijing Express, Yinxing Energy and Dongfang Risheng rose to a daily limit. Zhonghuan, Jingsheng Electromechanical, Yijing Optoelectronics and Tuo Rixin were up.
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