Guide: In August, a wave of electric coal was rushed in several major ports in the north. Railways, ports and shipping companies had to work overtime to meet the demand of downstream power plants and traders. Qinhuangdao Port continued to decline and the country voted Jingtang Port coal stocks confirms the above statement, in late August, two Hong Kong stocks were 6.28 million tons and 1.28 million tons, compared with the end of July decreased by 22.3% and 26.9%, while the Bohai Sea thermal coal The price index rose for the first time in 16 weeks. The 5,500 kcal thermal coal closed at 627 yuan/ton on August 29, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period. The above situation seems to be in contradiction with the status quo of the failure of traders to gamble up. A coal importer with a Chinese-funded background said that this round of gambling losses has been a heavy blow to the industry. The losses of various traders are calculated in terms of "100 million". The import volume of a certain country has been ranked in the top three in China for several years. The importer of this name has lost about 1 billion yuan in this round. Guangdong provincial coal official told this reporter that from the monitoring data, there is no sign of any improvement in coal demand. The coal consumption in Guangdong Province has been negative for two consecutive months. He did not disclose specific data, but said that the decline is a Number of digits. In addition, the load of the Guangdong thermal power unit has improved slightly in recent days, rising from the previous 60% to more than 70%, still at a low level. In the same period of last year, Guangdong thermal power units were generally fully loaded or even overloaded. The reason for the shipment is in fact, the price of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index has stabilized for three weeks before this slight increase, after the index has fallen for 13 weeks. The price of thermal coal for the 5,500 kcal dropped from 860 yuan/ton at the end of last year to the current 627 yuan/ton. Li Ting, an analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, said that the stabilization of prices in August made the market judge that the bottom of this round of coal prices may have appeared, which also attracted some traders and downstream power plants to enter the market. According to him, there are already traders and power plants that have begun to negotiate the price of winter coal storage. Some traders who are still in stocks have chosen to enter the goods at the moment, and there are also considerations for lowering the cost of inventory. In fact, after the entire traditional coal season in the peak summer, the coal storage capacity of major power plants has dropped significantly. Li Ting said that the coal storage in the six major power generation groups in East China and South China, including Zhedian, consumed about 3 to 4 million tons in July and August, and there were few inbound goods in the downstream in June and July. The need to replenish stocks has been formed. Local production and insured measures may also be one of the reasons that prompted power plants to purchase coal in the near future. In mid-August, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document requesting the provinces to submit the planned coal production in the province in 2012 according to the principle of moderately tight, and this target has different results from the provincial targets set at the beginning of the year. The top three major coal producing areas in China are Inner Mongolia and Shanxi. Both Shaanxi and Shaanxi have expected production cuts. The expected output is 920 million tons, 810 million tons and 400 million tons, respectively, lower than the 2011 raw coal output. The aforementioned people familiar with the situation of Qinhuangdao Port analyzed that the rushing of this round of coal was related to the weather. The typhoon that frequently visited the southeast coast in August affected the normal operation of the north-south route, resulting in the concentration of ships to the port to transport coal. The port-opening measures of Qinhuangdao Port and Guangzhou Port also saw results, resulting in a sharp drop in coal stocks at the port. He revealed that in order to control the inventory, the Qinhuangdao port of the coal transit land and the Guangzhou port of the consumer land have adopted order management. The coal that has not been sent in the past month will not be unloaded. This will make the coal inventory of Guangzhou Port more than 300 before. Ten thousand tons fell to 2.6 million tons at the end of August. The routine maintenance of the Daqin line in September is also one of the reasons for the recent coal-fired transportation. Li Ting said that the downstream concerns about the reduction of coal import in September will lead to the purchase of reserves in advance. The Daqin line maintenance is scheduled to be in late September, lasting for about 20 days, and the "open skylight" is overhauled for three hours every day. Traders who have a wide range of traders in the above-mentioned Chinese-funded background have revealed that they are still waiting to see if there is no procurement plan for domestic or imported coal. He said that traders have been in the process of clearing stocks since June, and 90% of traders are losing money. The bigger the scale, the more the losses. After the Beijing China International Coal Conference on April 17-19 this year, almost all large coal traders have finalized short-term coal import contracts with foreign suppliers, ranging from 1 million to 2 million tons to as many as 1,000. Ten thousand tons. In just two months, the price of imported coal, which was signed at a price of around US$120/ton, plummeted to around US$85/ton. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China's coal imports in July 2012 were 24.27 million tons, down 10.74% from the previous month. This is the first time that China's coal imports have declined after six months of growth. The aforementioned traders said that the decline in imported coal will continue, and many imported coal contracts were postponed or even cancelled. He said that contract breaches with companies such as Europe, the United States and Australia are likely to lead to legal disputes. Recently, I have heard of such cases. "The whole ship is on the market, but it can't be contacted." He said that contracts in Southeast Asia are relatively easy. Dealing with the delay in delivery or even the re-negotiation of both parties is possible. He said that this round of destruction was more fierce than in the financial crisis. China's coal imports were far less than the current level during the financial crisis. China is now the world's largest coal importer. The aforementioned Guangdong officials analyzed that the loosening of the coal market will continue for some time. From the perspective of monitoring, several large traders are still maintaining imports. Although the import volume has decreased, "should be in the process of implementing some The promised contract ". He estimated that the amount of imported coal in Guangdong in the second half of the year will be around 68 million tons. From January to July, Guangdong Province completed about 39 million tons of coal imports.
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