Objectively speaking, compared with the collapse of various industries in recent years, a stone industry is still leisurely, and compared with other industries, stores or stores are being "siege" by e-commerce, making a large number of original entities. The store is a warehouse, and the stone industry that only leaks the net fish, in a place called Shuitou Town, will turn the “warehouse into a store†like a fish. An iron frame with an area of ​​less than two square feet, the annual rent can be as high as two or three thousand yuan. Not only the high-end office buildings in Xiamen, but also the so-called Wangpu, which allows the developers of Hengxiao, Qianda and other high-priced developers to develop at a high price.
However, behind this phenomenon, the water head should not continue to increase and expand the slab market. This question is precisely to discuss the original intention of the article through this article.
Overcapacity is an indisputable fact
First of all, let's look at a set of data that is not fully statistical but important:
The number of large board shelves before the water head before 2017: 230,000 (including vacancy rate of 15%)
In 2018, the number of shelves in the water head is up to 400,000 (including under construction, more than 40,000 will be opened during the year)
In other words, the number of stone traders has nearly doubled in the past year!
This increase rate kills any building materials segment in any region. The result of this phenomenon is that the local factories that were originally less than 60% of the operating rate in 2016 will almost all come back to life in 2017. Last year, more than 80 new saws were added to each factory. The total number of saws in Taiwan, Guan, Shui and Shisan Towns reached 1,400. However, most of the stone that has been continuously produced has been sold? The answer is obviously no, a large part of it is still on the iron shelf of the new board market. Speaking of this, one can not help but think of a word: "overcapacity", this is a word that industry people do not want to talk about, but can not be avoided.
Stone industry inventory pressure exists for a long time
1400 sets of saws are calculated according to the lowest value of 80,000 square meters per year. In theory, the output of 110 million square meters last year is 22 billion yuan. The above data is only the big board of last year, and before 2017, the inventory is less than 30 billion worth of goods can not run. And it is stored in Xiamen Port, Liuwudian, Shihu Port, and the water-filled waste yards, related factories and roadside blocks (some even have not moved in 7 or 8 years), not to mention how much. . Therefore, the seemingly prosperous stone industry, seemingly "busy and hard" stone people, a few years of hard work, the profits, not in stock, or in the old project. In addition, the long-term existence of digestive pressure, the task of de-stocking is very heavy, which also makes the price of stone rise weak.
Processing factory business is hot or short-term phenomenon
The release of capacity in any industry depends on the amount of digestion of the market demand side. Judging from the quantity of saws, the production capacity of the water head slabs accounts for more than 60% of the country, and the huge amount of stone slabs produced by the release of more water head capacity in the past year is more likely to be transferred to the slab market. In the shelf position, most of them are converted into inventory (there is no inventory to be realized as inventory). When the inventory reaches relative saturation, if the board turnover rate on the shelf does not reach the balance of production and sales, it will inevitably face a decline in processing demand. It is said that the direct point is that the large board that will be cut out will have nowhere to be placed. The factory operating rate is determined by the turnover rate, and the turnover rate is fast. Even if there are only five markets, 100,000 shelves, the same can be used to digest 1,400 saws. Otherwise, there will be more slabs and shelves, and the same will not be able to raise the saw. Instead, the inventory pressure will force the merchants to cut prices, thus making vicious competition. And the discerning eye knows that the hot start rate of this round of factories is not caused by the turnover rate of the sales end, but to "feed the market shelf."
The business of the big board market is actually not as good as you think!
In the top ten hot words of the annual inventory at the end of last year, the annual hot land was judged: the water head, the annual counterattack: the big board market. The reason is of course directly related to the industrial reflow caused by environmental remediation. However, in my opinion, the slab market, which is growing wildly on this hot land, brings life to the water head, and may also bring bubbles. The water head seems to have more people and more cars in a year, but this does not mean that sales have increased year on year. Borrowing a friend from the industry, Mr. Wang said that there are more people returning from business, and there may not be many customers. The multi-blocking of trucks only transfers the new boards in the factory to the new large-plate market iron frame. The sharp-eyed friend also observed that the headlight traffic light stopped for too long, and the truck's start-up time was slow and caused a 90-second red light. The 15-second green light could only pass 2~3 trucks. However, the actual annual sales of large-scale slabs have increased year-on-year. How much has increased in the slab market? How much turnover has the merchants? I think everyone knows, not to mention the number of merchants has doubled, and the market has gone from 10 Multiples increased to more than 40 large and small. The cake on the demand side did not increase much.
At the beginning of April, it was found that the surface of the Shoutou slab market appeared to be prosperous, but the market became saturated. In addition, a large number of new merchants were operating in the same industry. Most of the merchants were stunned and the business was deserted. In a market that visited nearly 20,000 shelves, most merchants were particularly deserted. "Now the business is not very good." A salesman bluntly said, "But the business is not far from ours." The water market is more than 40 markets, although the business model is not the same, but in addition to five The six markets are doing well, and most of the business is rampant, and this summer is “collectively coolâ€.
Although the threshold of the stone industry is low, please clear your mind and open again.
The trade of stone trade, three or two people, knowing some purchases or doing one or two years of sales, each of them can be opened for sale, which is the characteristics of this industry, which leads to the departure of several employees of a company. Head of the establishment of a number of companies, a company from the factory to the big board market, the original venue from only one operator to dozens of hundreds of merchants. But is it really so easy? actually not.
“Now there are too many traders doing the same kind of products, and the profit margin is really low.†One merchant said that the water head market is “saturatedâ€. The most obvious signal is that some stone products with a price of about 200 yuan / square meter, in the past few years, there are at most twenty or thirty businesses in the market, and now some beige and gray varieties, Chaoyi Two hundred are selling at the same time! And most of them are not controlled resources, so needless to say, the profit rate can be imagined. It is foreseeable that as competition intensifies further, the prospects for most of these new stone trade merchants after entering the market are not optimistic. Among the friends who have recently entered the market in recent years, more reactions actually deducted personnel and rents last year. Not only did they not make money, but the inventory was in the throat, and this situation was not rare, and even worse, they did not sell a board for half a year! It is conceivable that if you really want to clear the field and quit, it is inevitable to cut the meat.
The water head slab market may face a predicament and competition will intensify
The explosion of the market and the increase in the number of new merchants in the water head have increased the rental income of the market in the past two years, which has brought short-term prosperity to the water head to a certain extent, but the essence of business is a win-win situation, or more Winning can last. It has been observed that most of the new shelves in the Shuitou slab market are rented by stone people who are returning from the field or newly entering the market. Old-fashioned stone enterprises have not only not added new expansion positions and sales outlets, but are mostly shrinking. During the visit, it was found that the new "new heads" business status is not as good as they thought when they entered the market, so their anti-risk ability will directly test the renewal rate of the shelves in the water head market next year. ! In particular, there is no market advantage, no outbound market... (here seven or eight characters are omitted.)
If 30% of the merchants in the market are in a state of low-cost competition and long-term loss, it will not be conducive to the healthy development of this industry, and in the long run, it will ultimately harm the interests of the market. However, the author found that this did not block the footsteps of investors. It is hereby appealed that if it is not a factory, it is necessary to invest heavily in the construction of the stone slab market, or there should be no small risk.
Need to be alert to the hidden dangers of overcapacity transmission to the entire industry chain
The recent two market dynamics of feedback can't help but make us judge the imbalance. First, a market is telling merchants to increase rents, and the other is that some merchants have already transferred their shelves at a cheap price. After a calm investigation, I found that the rent increase is only a gimmick, and subletting does have something to do, and most of them are new business operations last year. Some are subletting, and some are all exiting. This has to be vigilant, exiting - loss clearance - Low-cost competition - lease renewals are not renewed - industry inventories are intensifying. The hidden danger of this chain seems to bring the scene back to the 2015-2016 water head industry phenomenon! Enterprises are depressed, and they are struggling to support. The lowest rate of factory operation is less than half. In order to reduce the burden of labor costs, business owners try their best to dismiss workers. This is just a hypothesis, I hope it will not happen, but it is worthy of vigilance!
"Supply-side reform" seems to have nothing to do with the stone industry, but it is very important!
In recent years, the reform of the supply-side structure proposed by the decision-making layer is actually starting from the source, de-capacity, and solving the problem of overcapacity. Because all industries have overcapacity, blind expansion, directly leading to price decline! Some companies do more, The more losses, if not done, result in a large number of unemployment, the policy level does not allow. With the adjustment of policies, many industries that have been hundreds of times more difficult than stone materials have already emerged from the predicament. The data show that energy and mineral enterprises have achieved positive profit growth of 30% to 40% in the case of successive years of losses. After several years of sluggishness, this year, basic excess capacity has emerged.
The Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the "Blue Book of Circulation: China Business Development Report" pointed out that in the next five years, one-third of China's trading market will be eliminated, and one-third will successfully achieve online and offline docking. Only one-third of the physical business can be left behind. Today, when the Internet is popular, the stone industry is still spared, but who dares to say that e-commerce will not be able to patrol the stone industry?
It is expected that local governments should conduct appropriate scientific guidance, maintain appropriate coordination of market capacity, and take advantage of the situation to make harms to the interests, not only to avoid the "big dry fast" style, but also to be wary of the "wind and cloud" style And scattered!
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