Experts predict the trend of aluminum futures in Shanghai on the 22nd

On November 21st, Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly higher and finished the shocks with a slight increase across the board. Industry analysts believe that due to concerns about slowing economic growth and increased production capacity, it is expected to have an impact on aluminum prices.
On Tuesday, November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHE) aluminum main 701 contract opened at 19,840 yuan, to close at 19,860 yuan, up 80 yuan; spot 612 contract closed at 20,320 yuan, up 110 yuan.
Shanghai Aluminum finished lower and is expected to maintain shocks.
In the background of London's aluminum rebound overnight, Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 701 opened higher at 19840, and the bulls once pushed up the price in early morning. After the price hit a high of 19950, they entered the consolidation. In the afternoon, the prices of Shanghai Aluminum also fell back due to the fall in Shanghai copper and agricultural products. The long-short-term increase in the pace of lightening up the market ended at 19,860. On the 20th, it continued to maintain its strong characteristics in the near-future, but the volume of transactions continued to shrink. This indicates that the board is only following a small fluctuation in London, and long-short is relatively balanced at this position.
Shanghai spot aluminum has a strong performance with a quotation of 21075, an increase of 260 yuan, and a premium of more than 1,000 yuan in Guangdong Nanhai spot market. The market has less tradable supplies and the transaction range is between 21,300 and 21,480 yuan/ton, and the transaction status is general. In the past two months, after the price of aluminum rose above 21,500 yuan/ton, consumers were generally more cautious in accepting goods, which restricted the price of aluminum from further rising. In the next few days, it is difficult to see local inventories rise. Guangdong aluminum prices are expected to remain stable. Further higher prices will require external rebounds.
In the news, the documentary secretary of the Aluminum Division of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association stated that the production of alumina will be maintained at a level slightly lower than the demand, and it is impossible for China's alumina to be exported. An official from India's National Aluminum Corporation (NALCO) stated that the company has lowered its aluminum prices by Rs 4,000/t. This price cut will take effect on November 17. Indalex, the second largest aluminum extrusion producer in the United States, announced that its third-quarter shipments rose 3.2% from the same period in 2005. The above news has a bad degree of varying degrees, but London's low inventory and positional imbalances and domestic low inventory and spot support temporarily occupy the upper hand.
LME zinc prices rose by more than 3% on the 20th due to lower LME inventories, but traders believe that long-term concerns about slowing economic growth are imminent. Affected by zinc, aluminum also closed higher at $30 to 2,655. On the same day, the aluminum volume was 97332 lots, the position was reduced by 2175 lots, and the inventory increased by 450 tons.
The yen fell across the board in the New York market on the 20th. The market was disappointed that the financial ministers’ meeting last weekend did not comment on the weakness of the yen. The dollar rebounded slightly. Some analysts had said before the 20-nation meeting that if officials choose to focus on the impact of the US current account deficit on global imbalances, then the dollar will risk falling. however. The 20-nation finance minister did not mention the current account deficit problem. This is good for the dollar. The major economies in the world are facing the risk of rising inflation risks, but the strong economic growth prospects suggest that the major central banks may not cut interest rates soon.
Although London Aluminum rebounded on the 20th, it still has some pressure on the 2670 line. The market only has to stand above 2710, and the rebound is expected to really start, and there is still a possibility of further investigation.
Shanghai Aluminum temporarily gained support on the 19700 line on the 20th. On the 21st, it was under pressure in the vicinity of 20,000. Since both the volatility and volume have been reduced simultaneously, both short and long trading days have been lightened and left the market, indicating short-term and long-term achievement. A relatively balanced and short-term outlook for the market is also more confused. In view of this, the trend of the London aluminum future will be very important. It is expected that the next week will select the short-term direction around 20,000, and the operating range may be 20,000 as the watershed. On the whole, the shock consolidation pattern remains unchanged.

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