Machinery industry production and export growth slowed sharply in 2008

event:

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission released the overall situation of industrial economic operation in 2008. In 2008, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 17.1% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 7 percentage points year-on-year. The export delivery value was 1,429.7 billion yuan, up 18.4%, down 15.2 year-on-year. percentage point.

Comments:

In 2008, the growth rate of production and export of the machinery industry slowed down, and the industry's prosperity gradually declined. From the industry data in November and December, the current industry boom has not improved significantly.

The growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry in December 2008 is still on the decline. In 2008, the added value of machinery industry above designated size increased by 17.1% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 7 percentage points year-on-year. In December, the growth rate of value added of machinery industry above designated size dropped from 7% in May to 7%.

In November 2008, production and sales and profit growth continued to slow down. From January to November 2008, the cumulative sales value of the national machinery industry increased by 25.23% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 6.43 percentage points over the same period of last year (31.66%), and fell by 1.54 percentage points from January to October (26.77%). From the growth rate of sales value in each month of 2008, the growth rate of sales value in January-November continued to decline in the previous three months, and the decline was still increasing. The profit growth rate has shown a sharp decline. From January to November 2008, the profits of machinery industry enterprises increased by 16.42% year-on-year, 7.05 percentage points lower than that of January-August (27.51%), and 18.14 percentage points lower than that of January-May (34.56%), an increase over the same period of last year ( 47.79%) fell sharply by 31.37 percentage points.

The newly-reformed equipment manufacturing industry's adjustment and revitalization plan will focus on solving the weak links involving major equipment and basic components. At present, it is mainly a directional and policy adjustment plan, and further specific stimulus measures are needed. In general, in the medium and long term, the demand of the machinery industry will be driven to a certain extent, but the internal and external demand of the machinery industry will continue to be weak in the short term.

We still maintain our view of the investment strategy for 2009, and the overall rating of the machinery industry is “neutral”. Among them, the power transmission and transformation equipment and railway equipment sub-sectors have a clear growth in future demand and a high degree of prosperity, which deserves special attention. The recovery of the construction machinery industry will depend on the development of the downstream real estate industry, with certain staged investment opportunities.

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