The latest "China Economic Quarterly" released by the World Bank on March 18th believes that despite the severe impact of the global economic crisis, China's real economy will continue to develop steadily and rapidly. The Chinese economy still has a large space for economic stimulus measures.
The "Quarterly" believes that China's banking industry is basically unaffected by international financial turmoil because China does not rely on foreign capital to support economic growth. Private consumption is still active and is expected to continue to grow at a faster rate. At the same time, the economic stimulus plan will support domestic demand, production and employment, and government-led investment is accelerating growth.
The World Bank believes that the rapid increase in fiscal expenditures and the slowdown in fiscal revenues since November 2008 have resulted in a small deficit in fiscal revenues for the full year of 2008. Coupled with the surge in bank credit, there is some support for economic activity and market sentiment. From recent data such as industrial sales data and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), China's domestic economy has maintained a better posture than foreign demand.
The World Bank also cut its 2009 China economic growth rate from 6.5% expected in November last year to 6.5%. The Quarterly report pointed out that the slowdown in external demand and the global economic crisis will lead to weak exports and slow social investment, which will curb China's economic growth in 2009 and 2010. Although the decline in China's exports may have bottomed out in February, the annual export volume is likely to be lower than last year. According to customs data, in the first two months of this year, exports reached US$155.33 billion, down 21.1% year-on-year.
The World Bank senior economist Gao Luyi said that a slightly lower growth will not harm China's economic or social stability, and the second round of economic stimulus plans should not be launched in the short term. China's economic fundamentals are solid, and policymakers can consider the impact of policies on the economy from a longer-term perspective. Recently implemented measures including boosting government spending in the medical, education and social security sectors to boost domestic demand and improve people's livelihood are welcome, and there is room for further measures.
The "Quarterly" believes that China's banking industry is basically unaffected by international financial turmoil because China does not rely on foreign capital to support economic growth. Private consumption is still active and is expected to continue to grow at a faster rate. At the same time, the economic stimulus plan will support domestic demand, production and employment, and government-led investment is accelerating growth.
The World Bank believes that the rapid increase in fiscal expenditures and the slowdown in fiscal revenues since November 2008 have resulted in a small deficit in fiscal revenues for the full year of 2008. Coupled with the surge in bank credit, there is some support for economic activity and market sentiment. From recent data such as industrial sales data and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), China's domestic economy has maintained a better posture than foreign demand.
The World Bank also cut its 2009 China economic growth rate from 6.5% expected in November last year to 6.5%. The Quarterly report pointed out that the slowdown in external demand and the global economic crisis will lead to weak exports and slow social investment, which will curb China's economic growth in 2009 and 2010. Although the decline in China's exports may have bottomed out in February, the annual export volume is likely to be lower than last year. According to customs data, in the first two months of this year, exports reached US$155.33 billion, down 21.1% year-on-year.
The World Bank senior economist Gao Luyi said that a slightly lower growth will not harm China's economic or social stability, and the second round of economic stimulus plans should not be launched in the short term. China's economic fundamentals are solid, and policymakers can consider the impact of policies on the economy from a longer-term perspective. Recently implemented measures including boosting government spending in the medical, education and social security sectors to boost domestic demand and improve people's livelihood are welcome, and there is room for further measures.
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