After the overall increase in the first quarter, the PV price trend in the second quarter of this year can be said to have entered the winter period. The price of the photovoltaic industry has generally declined, and the price of polysilicon has even made domestic small and medium-sized enterprises suffer and complain.
During the quarter, the entire PV market was in cold winter, and the continuous decline in prices was mainly due to inventory pressure. Last year, the global photovoltaic industry ushered in an explosive development year. Many manufacturers are optimistic about the future photovoltaic industry and have high expectations. Most companies adopt more expansion strategies to gain more market share, and excessive inventory pressure forces companies to fight price wars. However, the rate of price reduction in late June slowed down and stabilized because the market price is close to the cost price and the downside is relatively small. The price fell to a certain extent, the market digested some of the inventory, photovoltaic companies' inventory pressure was relatively reduced, the United States and China have expressed their supportive intentions, the German market has also appeared many good, related companies are still conservative about the market outlook, and actively clean up In the inventory, the photovoltaic industry is still in a downturn phase, but it is basically close to the bottom. In the next three quarters, the photovoltaic market is expected to heat up, but the warming rate is slower.
According to IMS Research's report, PV installations increased by 130% year-on-year last year. However, as the world’s largest photovoltaic application market in Europe continues to reduce subsidies, many agencies forecast that the growth rate of the PV installation market this year may be only about 30%.
Polysilicon prices have fallen sharply in the short term Since mid-April, polysilicon prices have fallen sharply, and their average prices have fallen from 86 US$/kg on April 20 to 48 US$/kg at the end of June, of which from April 20 to May 11 In the past month, the price of polysilicon was basically stable, but from the third week of May, the polysilicon price began to drastically drop. By May 26, it had dropped to 52 US dollars/kg in two weeks. Polysilicon prices have come close to the cost price, and they have landed smoothly after experiencing a slight decline in June.
The reasons for the dipping of polysilicon prices in the second quarter are various. The overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry and the swing of the German government's policies have caused uncertainties in the manufacturers, causing a sharp drop in prices. In June, the United States and China both expressed their intentions for policy support, and Germany originally planned to implement a draft of the renewable energy bill passed on June 6th for the reduction of PV on-grid tariffs. This clause was Remove it. According to the agreement of the German cabinet, from January 1, 2012, FiT subsidies are expected to be reduced by only 9%. However, once the installed capacity of the photovoltaic system exceeds the annual limit of 3.5 GW, each exceeding 1 GW will result in a further reduction of the subsidy by 3%. This agreement will be implemented at the end of September each year. Although the effects of various policies are not obvious, the prices of polysilicon and photovoltaic modules are flat for several weeks in a row, indicating that the cold winter of PV will soon pass and the temperature will come back soon.
Silicon wafer prices continue to fall If the polysilicon is sharply lower in a short period of time, the wafers will continue to decline during the quarter. The weekly average price decline, the entire second quarter of the silicon chart is a nearly slick curve, although the weekly decline is relatively low, but the decline of more than a dozen weeks, still allow manufacturers to complain again and again. In the second half of April, the average price of 156 monocrystalline wafers was 3.7 US dollars/Watt. After falling for 11 consecutive weeks until June 29th, it had reached US$2.002/W. The average price of 156 polysilicon wafers in late April was 3.33 US dollars / watt, to the end of June the price of 2.002 US dollars / watt.
Affected by the PV upstream and downstream industries in the second quarter, PV modules and films also declined. However, the rate of decline was not significant. It was stable in late to mid-June, and is expected to remain stable or slightly pick up in the next quarter. Although almost the entire photovoltaic industry is in a downward trend, concentrator photovoltaics and photovoltaic inverters are in a relatively stable state throughout the second quarter without major fluctuations and are less affected by other industries. Some industry insiders said that in the future solar photovoltaic industry photovoltaic inverter will become a new bright spot. The future development and trend of inverters need further observation.
According to industry reports, the weak European PV market demand in the first half of 2011 led to a surge in global solar module inventory at the end of the second quarter.
Manufacturers originally expected shipments in the second quarter of 2011 to increase by 12% from the first quarter. However, insiders initially estimated that actual shipments fell by 22%. Even if demand increased by 79% in the second quarter and production fell by 20%, the inventory of battery and component manufacturers still increased by 559MW. At the end of the second quarter of 2011, global stocks are forecast to reach 8.6GW, of which upstream stocks will increase by 36%, while downstream stocks will decline slightly. Excess supply led to a 9% drop in the European factory price of components in the second quarter of 2011, a cumulative decrease of 16% this year.
The photovoltaic industry still faces challenges in the second half of 2011. Manufacturers are still optimistic about output and shipment expectations. The corresponding supply will reach 1.4-1.7 times 2010, but the demand in the end market is only expected to increase by 5%. In 2010, the global market totaled 19.3 GW, and in 2011 it is expected to grow to 20.3 GW.
Many manufacturers now expect low prices to drive demand growth in the second half of 2011. However, market demand still depends on the rapid digestion of downstream stockpiles and the clarity of European regional policies. Most of the downstream manufacturers currently focus on reducing inventory to avoid falling prices, rather than continuing to purchase.
The cold winter of the PV market has basically passed. To warm up soon, low-carbon emission reduction has always been the goal of all countries in the world. The discovery and use of solar energy will undoubtedly meet future development requirements. After the earthquake in Japan, countries increasingly recognized the importance of clean energy. With the adoption of a nuclear abandonment program in Germany, the demand for a nuclear abandonment in Japan is also high. Although it will not be implemented immediately in the short term, the large scale of solar energy Development is only a matter of time.
People in the industry are generally optimistic about the future development of the photovoltaic industry. However, reasonable planning can promote the healthy development of the industry. This time, the price of the solar photovoltaic industry has been lower, which has caused many companies to agonize. The main reason is that they failed to accurately assess the market in advance and Make accurate positioning for future development. Although this crisis has passed, no one can guarantee that the PV market will not be caught in a similar "whirlpool."
During the quarter, the entire PV market was in cold winter, and the continuous decline in prices was mainly due to inventory pressure. Last year, the global photovoltaic industry ushered in an explosive development year. Many manufacturers are optimistic about the future photovoltaic industry and have high expectations. Most companies adopt more expansion strategies to gain more market share, and excessive inventory pressure forces companies to fight price wars. However, the rate of price reduction in late June slowed down and stabilized because the market price is close to the cost price and the downside is relatively small. The price fell to a certain extent, the market digested some of the inventory, photovoltaic companies' inventory pressure was relatively reduced, the United States and China have expressed their supportive intentions, the German market has also appeared many good, related companies are still conservative about the market outlook, and actively clean up In the inventory, the photovoltaic industry is still in a downturn phase, but it is basically close to the bottom. In the next three quarters, the photovoltaic market is expected to heat up, but the warming rate is slower.
According to IMS Research's report, PV installations increased by 130% year-on-year last year. However, as the world’s largest photovoltaic application market in Europe continues to reduce subsidies, many agencies forecast that the growth rate of the PV installation market this year may be only about 30%.
Polysilicon prices have fallen sharply in the short term Since mid-April, polysilicon prices have fallen sharply, and their average prices have fallen from 86 US$/kg on April 20 to 48 US$/kg at the end of June, of which from April 20 to May 11 In the past month, the price of polysilicon was basically stable, but from the third week of May, the polysilicon price began to drastically drop. By May 26, it had dropped to 52 US dollars/kg in two weeks. Polysilicon prices have come close to the cost price, and they have landed smoothly after experiencing a slight decline in June.
The reasons for the dipping of polysilicon prices in the second quarter are various. The overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry and the swing of the German government's policies have caused uncertainties in the manufacturers, causing a sharp drop in prices. In June, the United States and China both expressed their intentions for policy support, and Germany originally planned to implement a draft of the renewable energy bill passed on June 6th for the reduction of PV on-grid tariffs. This clause was Remove it. According to the agreement of the German cabinet, from January 1, 2012, FiT subsidies are expected to be reduced by only 9%. However, once the installed capacity of the photovoltaic system exceeds the annual limit of 3.5 GW, each exceeding 1 GW will result in a further reduction of the subsidy by 3%. This agreement will be implemented at the end of September each year. Although the effects of various policies are not obvious, the prices of polysilicon and photovoltaic modules are flat for several weeks in a row, indicating that the cold winter of PV will soon pass and the temperature will come back soon.
Silicon wafer prices continue to fall If the polysilicon is sharply lower in a short period of time, the wafers will continue to decline during the quarter. The weekly average price decline, the entire second quarter of the silicon chart is a nearly slick curve, although the weekly decline is relatively low, but the decline of more than a dozen weeks, still allow manufacturers to complain again and again. In the second half of April, the average price of 156 monocrystalline wafers was 3.7 US dollars/Watt. After falling for 11 consecutive weeks until June 29th, it had reached US$2.002/W. The average price of 156 polysilicon wafers in late April was 3.33 US dollars / watt, to the end of June the price of 2.002 US dollars / watt.
Affected by the PV upstream and downstream industries in the second quarter, PV modules and films also declined. However, the rate of decline was not significant. It was stable in late to mid-June, and is expected to remain stable or slightly pick up in the next quarter. Although almost the entire photovoltaic industry is in a downward trend, concentrator photovoltaics and photovoltaic inverters are in a relatively stable state throughout the second quarter without major fluctuations and are less affected by other industries. Some industry insiders said that in the future solar photovoltaic industry photovoltaic inverter will become a new bright spot. The future development and trend of inverters need further observation.
According to industry reports, the weak European PV market demand in the first half of 2011 led to a surge in global solar module inventory at the end of the second quarter.
Manufacturers originally expected shipments in the second quarter of 2011 to increase by 12% from the first quarter. However, insiders initially estimated that actual shipments fell by 22%. Even if demand increased by 79% in the second quarter and production fell by 20%, the inventory of battery and component manufacturers still increased by 559MW. At the end of the second quarter of 2011, global stocks are forecast to reach 8.6GW, of which upstream stocks will increase by 36%, while downstream stocks will decline slightly. Excess supply led to a 9% drop in the European factory price of components in the second quarter of 2011, a cumulative decrease of 16% this year.
The photovoltaic industry still faces challenges in the second half of 2011. Manufacturers are still optimistic about output and shipment expectations. The corresponding supply will reach 1.4-1.7 times 2010, but the demand in the end market is only expected to increase by 5%. In 2010, the global market totaled 19.3 GW, and in 2011 it is expected to grow to 20.3 GW.
Many manufacturers now expect low prices to drive demand growth in the second half of 2011. However, market demand still depends on the rapid digestion of downstream stockpiles and the clarity of European regional policies. Most of the downstream manufacturers currently focus on reducing inventory to avoid falling prices, rather than continuing to purchase.
The cold winter of the PV market has basically passed. To warm up soon, low-carbon emission reduction has always been the goal of all countries in the world. The discovery and use of solar energy will undoubtedly meet future development requirements. After the earthquake in Japan, countries increasingly recognized the importance of clean energy. With the adoption of a nuclear abandonment program in Germany, the demand for a nuclear abandonment in Japan is also high. Although it will not be implemented immediately in the short term, the large scale of solar energy Development is only a matter of time.
People in the industry are generally optimistic about the future development of the photovoltaic industry. However, reasonable planning can promote the healthy development of the industry. This time, the price of the solar photovoltaic industry has been lower, which has caused many companies to agonize. The main reason is that they failed to accurately assess the market in advance and Make accurate positioning for future development. Although this crisis has passed, no one can guarantee that the PV market will not be caught in a similar "whirlpool."
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