The dawn of the European debt crisis has improved market risk appetite and the funds have returned to non-US currencies. Affected by this, the second consecutive trading day of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate hit a new high since the exchange rate reform. So far, in the first 10 months of this year, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has reached 4.52% compared with the end of last year. According to the latest data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3233 on October 31, an increase of 57 basis points from the previous trading day. This is the first time since the first break of the 6.33 integer mark on Friday. The exchange rate on the second day changed to a new high. Observing the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, we can see that the characteristics of “moving with the US dollar†are quietly changing. Since the end of August this year, with the deterioration of the European debt crisis, the US dollar index has rebounded significantly. From the low of 73.53 at the end of August, it rebounded to the high of 79.84 on October 4, a record of nearly 9 months. High point. However, during this period, the RMB exchange rate did not appear to go away, but responded by accelerating appreciation. On September 30 this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.3549, setting a new record for exchange rate reform. Jiang Shu, senior foreign exchange analyst at Industrial Bank, said that since the start of the second round of exchange reform in June 2010, the change in the exchange rate of the renminbi has followed the principle of controlling inflation and maintaining growth, that is, when the dollar weakens, the dollar price of bulk commodities When rising, the renminbi appreciated against the dollar to ease the pressure of imported inflation; when the dollar strengthened, the renminbi depreciated against the dollar to avoid a trade shock caused by the renminbi's overall strength in a basket of major trading partners. During the worst deterioration of the European debt crisis, the market reaction of the renminbi not moving with the US dollar further reflected that the renminbi initiative continued to increase. However, this scene has not continued. Since the EU summit last week to resolve a package of solutions, the US dollar index has fallen sharply. In the face of the sharp fall in the US dollar overnight, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has risen by 187 basis points last Friday, breaking through two integer points. Directly rose to a new high of 6.3290. "Whether the impact of the European debt crisis is temporary or lasting, the recent change in the normal exchange rate of the RMB has signaled that the dominant factor of the RMB exchange rate is changing." Jiang Shu believes that in the first 10 months of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar The appreciation of the price of 4.52% is basically in line with market expectations. For the next year's trend, due to the fall in commodity prices, the weakening of the control of inflation is close to the US election year, which means that the main driving force of the RMB exchange rate change will gradually give way to the Sino-US game by economic incentives. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate will usher in a shock year in 2012, and the expected appreciation will be significantly reduced compared with this year, about 2%.
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