July Polysilicon Import and Export Statistics Analysis

The plunge in the PV market in the second quarter caused the entire industry to sweat. Since July, the market has gradually released a signal of bottoming out, orders have rebounded, prices of polysilicon and photovoltaic modules have stabilized and rebounded on a small scale. The recovery of the photovoltaic industry also led to an increase in the import volume of polysilicon this month.

China Customs released the July 2011 polysilicon import and export figures: The country imported 5,191 tons of polysilicon, a year-on-year increase of 41% and a year-on-year increase of 10.62%. In the first half of the year, it imported 35,581.237 tons of polysilicon. In addition, in July 2011, China exported 115 tons of polysilicon and accumulatively exported 796 tons of polysilicon. Judging from the total volume of imports and exports, the proportion of China's polysilicon imports and exports is still in a stage of serious misalignment, and the domestic production level is still unable to meet its own needs.

Polysilicon import data this month show that South Korea, the United States, and Germany are still the three major sources of China’s polysilicon imports, with imports of 2,054 tons, 1,320 tons, and 720 tons this month. In June, the import volume of polysilicon in South Korea surpassed that of the United States and Germany at a rapid rate. Industry insiders speculated that the order of Korea's importing countries will be rearranged, and this month South Korea will still sit first in an absolute position. The development of the Korean solar photovoltaic industry is very rapid and needs further observation.

With the global economy picking up, photovoltaic demand has soared. As the core material of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for polysilicon is also rising. The downturn of the PV market in the second quarter was mainly due to the fluctuating government policies of various countries. Most companies took a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a surge in market inventories. After a period of market regulation and the support attitudes of various countries, the photovoltaic market has gradually improved and domestic companies have joined in production. The expansion of the photovoltaic market will increase the demand for polysilicon. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, by 2015, China’s installed solar power generation capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts. Therefore, it is expected that the start-up of domestic PV market scale will be clear. Insiders pointed out that the start of domestic demand for photovoltaics, the premise is that the government introduced a clear fixed on-grid pricing mechanism. Therefore, the launch of the uniform benchmarking price of photovoltaic grid access in early August is equivalent to breaking the bottleneck of the development of the photovoltaic industry. The multiple benefits of the market will surely increase the demand for polysilicon.

Secondly, in the third quarter of the traditional peak season for the photovoltaic industry, in the first half of the year, when demand was almost stagnant, the start-up volume in the third quarter was expected to exceed the industry's expectations. In addition, on July 1st, Germany cancelled the reduction of the installed subsidy policy to activate The photovoltaic market, which also allows more people in the industry and companies to express their optimism for the future of the solar photovoltaic industry and join the production.

Furthermore, China's recently released "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" has made strict entry requirements for the construction and renovation of polysilicon projects. Strict regulations are bound to block a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises outside the door, with 80% of companies in the industry being squeezed out of the market due to non-compliance, which will lead to polysilicon production capacity growth is likely to lag behind the market demand for some time. The polysilicon capacity gap will exist for a long time. Reliance on imports will be the only option when domestic production capacity cannot meet the needs.