“The design capacity of lithium battery separators in China is far greater than the required capacity. A few years later, more than half of the diaphragm companies will close down.†Gu Chuanming, deputy general manager of Minzhou Pearl, one of the few listed domestic lithium battery separators, in the first China When the Lithium New Energy Industry International Summit Forum stated these things, the guests of the stage felt a familiar coolness.
This coolness has long appeared in the entire ecosystem of lithium batteries. “This is an unhealthy industrial chain.†Cheng Jianliang, deputy general manager of Chuangming Battery Technology Co., Ltd., one of the largest suppliers of 18650 batteries in China, said that the lithium-ion battery-related industries that are covered with the mystery of new energy are currently only available to enterprises. The family lives in the previous dream.
The diaphragm industry, which is not large, was once the highest technical barrier and the highest gross profit rate among the four materials for lithium batteries, and it was also the latest area for domestic manufacturers to carry out “import substitutionâ€.
Now, while eroding the share of foreign-invested companies, domestic diaphragm companies are also guilty of intensifying price wars and declining gross profit margins, and “import substitution†has also been stuck in an embarrassing situation.
Encroach on foreign share
“About two years ago, we had also been stuck on the diaphragm by a Japanese supplier and asked for payment two months in advance. Even if it were not delivered enough, it would affect production. But now Korea and China have made the diaphragm very clear. Positioning.†A person in charge of a domestic battery company has publicly affirmed that the domestic diaphragm has contributed to the domestic lithium battery business to get rid of “inequalityâ€.
"Lithium battery separator Big Three still rely on the technical advantages of monopoly, but the market share has begun to decline." Gu Chuanming said that due to cost pressures, coupled with the improvement of the quality of domestic diaphragm, almost all lithium battery companies are trying to import the domestic diaphragm.
The data shows that the domestic imported diaphragm is about 120 million square meters, and the proportion has dropped from 75% in previous years to about 50%. At present, the market size of domestic diaphragm is about 800 million yuan.
"Although there are still gaps, the domestic diaphragm has been squeezed into the fields that developed countries have mastered by taking the route of "first demand and then refinement." Foreign diaphragm companies generally feel pressure from Chinese companies," Gu Chuanming said.
However, outside of this figure, industry insiders told the reporter of the “First Financial Daily†that the domestic diaphragm is mostly concentrated in the low-end applications of mobile phones, power tools, and mobile power, and the domestic diaphragm still has a long way to go. go.
At the gross margin of 70%, companies have flocked to the lithium battery film industry in the past two years. Wu Hui, general manager of CCID Consulting Investment Department of China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, told this reporter that there are currently 40 to 50 companies that have put into production plans, and the actual mass production and sales are about a dozen or so.
"The current production rate is very low, 10,000 square meters of production capacity may be only 40% to 50% of the finished product yield, capacity utilization is lower than this figure." Wu Hui said.
Gu Chuanming also stated that the vast majority of companies announced that their production capacity and actual production capacity are quite different, and that the actual domestic diaphragm yield is very low.
According to the analysis of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, it is expected that the global diaphragm usage will be around 750 million square meters in 2013, and the domestic diaphragm design capacity will exceed 800 million square meters.
At present, Asahi Kasei Corporation, Dongfang, and Celgard in the first tier of the diaphragm control 74% of the global market and the high-end diaphragm. The second-tier Korean SK and Ube Industries also gradually enter the supply chain of Sanyo, Panasonic, LGC, and SDI. Currently, the domestic lithium battery separator companies have slightly larger scale Xinxiang Grean, Jinhui Gaoke, Xingyuan materials, production capacity of 200 million square meters, 100 million square meters and 80 million square meters respectively, the total output capacity of Zhangzhou Pearl is 70 million. Square meters.
Now the diaphragm's gross profit margin can reach 30%, which is considered high. This is accompanied by a fierce price war. From the 7-8 yuan/square meter two years ago, it has dropped to the present 4 yuan/square meter. "What domestic prices are all in accordance with the quality level is not the same, the import is better, some domestic and even a dollar have." Gu Chuanming said.
"Import substitution does not necessarily mean how good the technology is. As long as the price is cheaper and the technology is a little inferior, the battery manufacturers are willing to accept it. The key is to see which customer supply system they go into and there are no problems in the application." A brokerage analyst said.
The technical director of a battery factory in Shenzhen told this reporter that they currently use domestic diaphragms in consumer electronics. "The cost is relatively low. Small, medium- and low-end home-made products can also be used, but big ones are difficult to say because of safety reasons. Power batteries are rarely used."
Systematic problems
"Import substitution" as the goal of every diaphragm manufacturer is far from reality.
Zhuozhou Pearl recently said on the interactive platform that the previously filed patents for the company's lithium battery separator project have been passed one after another. Currently, the diaphragm products produced by the company have met the requirements of some manufacturers and have achieved alternative import.
"Single product performance is not bad, but there is a problem with the stability of mass production, can not guarantee the consistency of each batch of goods." A senior lithium power industry believes that "battery manufacturers to change a material is a long-term process. The diaphragms that many companies make are all tests well, but they cannot be mass-produced."
Wu Hui said that it is not possible to mass-produce production and it is related to the automation of the production line of a company. This is a system problem.
In terms of equipment, Gu Chuanming said that in terms of the full set of equipment investment, the basic quality is not well controlled if it is less than 150 million yuan.
At present, domestic equipment accounts for more than half of imported equipment. “Because each manufacturer has different processes and different control accuracy, many times the equipment needs to be customized.†Wu Hui said that there is no core technology and no good equipment is available. "A step back, even if some foreign technology is introduced, it will not be able to keep up with the process flow."
Gu Chuanming also said that many foreign companies have transferred from battery companies. Chinese companies are relatively amateur and have no background. “There are three basic types of this kind of product in China: Plastics processing companies, those who have worked on stretch film, and the second one is made up of tycoons composed of VCs, and then come from other industries.â€
In addition, there are also many gaps in raw materials. In the world, only Asahi Kasei, Celgard and Toray have independent polymer laboratories and have their own special materials, Gu Chuanming said.
In terms of research and development, industry sources told this reporter that domestic companies have almost no corresponding investment. "The United States Celgard, Japan's Asahi Kasei and Dongfang are large companies with billions of assets. These companies are diversified industries and have enough financial resources to support R&D," Gu Chuanming said.
In addition, since the separator plays a role in the safety of the battery, trust is very important. It is usually 2 to 3 years for the battery company to replace the diaphragm supplier. The brand and trust that the international company has accumulated in the market for many years is a short time for the domestic company. Not available.
Capital 踌躇
"Enterprises need to support a set of R&D systems, and they need 1 billion yuan in revenue to guarantee. In short, they need capital integration and concentrate their efforts. Now, they are all small businesses," Wu Hui said.
The founder of China Battery Network, Yu Qingyi, told this reporter that since the beginning of this year, the investment in the new diaphragm has been around 5 billion yuan. "The next step is to rely on the strength of capital to integrate. It will become a game among several giants; capital is more willing to invest in listed companies because of the protection of equity."
However, he also believes that the market issue of the lithium battery industry remains to be solved. "There are still some problems at the external level, but in the final analysis, the current technology still cannot support demand."
For some investors and investment institutions, the outlook for the diaphragm industry is not clear.
“We are not optimistic about this, the next generation of battery technology in the solid electrolyte, for safety reasons, the trend is to replace the liquid electrolyte is inevitable, it will no longer need a diaphragm, 5 to 10 years after the diaphragm may In the past few years, the domestic low-end diaphragm has become surplus, and the high-end diaphragm has not been able to make up for the gap with Japanese companies.†A domestic fund company analyst told this reporter, “We learned that a Japanese company has already With mature development, solid electrolyte will be mass produced next year. Once the production line is rolled out, the cost will inevitably drop, and the high-end diaphragm will be replaced."
Some people also expressed opposition. The above brokerage analysts believe that the current use of solid electrolyte or liquid is still controversial. “Like Tesla's use of liquids, even if it has recently caused some problems, it is the chassis of the car being punctured. It is a problem with the protective layer, not a problem with the battery pack. It can be improved during use. In the process of substitution, there are many problems in terms of applicability and cost."
Gu Chuanming said that with regard to solid-state electrolytes, the technical problems within a decade will not be solved and mass production will not be possible.
Another battery industry investor believes that investment will not be made in the absence of a large-scale market. "The technical route has been changing all the time, but still give the market enough time to test it."
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