Photovoltaic: installed capacity continues to grow, supply and demand tend to balance

Abstract Since the third quarter of 2013, several PV module manufacturers including Jinke Energy have returned to profit. From the perspective of Jinko Energy, it is really difficult to achieve profitability in the face of adversity. It is not easy. At the same time, in the above-mentioned photovoltaic enterprises that achieve profitability, one...
Since the third quarter of 2013, several PV module manufacturers including Jinke Energy have returned to profit. From the perspective of Jinko Energy, it is really difficult to achieve profitability in the face of adversity. It is not easy. At the same time, among the above-mentioned photovoltaic companies that have achieved profitability, some manufacturers have proposed new capacity expansion plans. This also led some brokerage analysts to give the forecast that the PV industry will still have excess capacity in 2014 and the industry supply exceeds demand.

In fact, the current main methods of expanding the industry are outsourcing, leasing plants and mergers and acquisitions. The overall industry has no new capacity. At the same time, industry demand has returned to the growth track, and it is conservatively expected that the global installed capacity will be around 40GW in 2014. Among them, China's newly installed capacity reached 8.5 to 9GW last year, ranking first in the world. In 2014, the solar installation target will continue to increase by 20% to 12GW.

The benefits of the demand side are indeed very obvious. However, after learning the lessons of the last round of fierce capacity expansion and price avalanche, many companies will be more cautious about the new round of expansion, and will not even consider it. Therefore, there is little chance that the supply side will be out of control again. In 2014, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a balance between supply and demand. In the second and third quarters of 2013, Jinko Energy also achieved profitability.

In the case of a basic balance between supply and demand in the industry, customers are paying more and more attention to brands, paying attention to the quality of products and systems, long-term stable power generation and the sustainability of the company. In 2014, a large number of high-quality orders will continue to flow to first-tier brands. The production capacity of first-line enterprises continued to increase, the second-tier enterprises maintained stability, and the production capacity of third-tier enterprises continued to decrease. This pattern of trade-offs not only ensures that the demand of the photovoltaic industry will not be faulty, but also helps to eliminate backward production capacity, which is very beneficial to the long-term development of the industry.

In terms of the market, the growth of global PV demand in 2013 is actually the growth of the three major PV markets in China, the United States and Japan. In 2014, except for the Japanese market, there may be uncertainty due to policy downgrades; the United States and China are still watching up, and the Chinese market has an installed capacity of 12GW in 2014.

Among them, the domestic market has benefited from the strong domestic policy, and the photovoltaic power station has entered a period of rapid development. It is estimated that the annual growth rate will be 20%. The power station revenue will be stable and the scale will be further expanded next year. The power station business will start to contribute significantly to the industry.

2013 is the year of China's distributed PV market. This year, there is still a policy of digestion, absorption, and experiment adjustment. However, distributed power plants are still very attractive after the state subsidies can be issued in a timely manner, the stability of industrial parks is strong, and electricity charges are put in place.

At the same time, however, it should also be noted that the owner's requirements for the quality of the power station are getting higher and higher, and the power generation and stability will allow the threshold to rise. Although many manufacturing companies are involved in the downstream, the design, construction, operation and investment development of power plants are two different things from component manufacturing. The talents, technologies and management ideas are different. It is not necessarily a good thing to follow suit, or it must be developed from its own long-term. Strategic and practical capabilities.

Innovation and health are the main reasons why Jinko Energy can achieve profitability earlier, but for the future, Jinko Energy is optimistic from the “hardship”.

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