Phenomenon 1: Real estate tax hits the year of the rabbit and raises interest rates
This is the first time the central bank has raised interest rates since this year and the third increase in interest rates since 2010. Every time it raises interest rates, people are exclaimed that China will enter the interest rate increase channel. Expert analysis believes that under the severe reality of inflation this year, a small interest rate hike will not solve the problem, and there may be several interest rate hikes in the future.
More than ten days before this, the State Council issued eight additional measures to regulate the real estate market on January 26. Only one day later, the State Council agreed in principle to carry out the pilot work of real estate tax in some cities. On January 28, 2011, the disturbing real estate tax officially struck. The pilot work will be carried out in Shanghai and Chongqing first, and the purchase restriction has been widely spread nationwide. The State Council expanded the scope of "restricted purchases" this time, suspending the purchase of homes that already have 2 suites, and raised the down payment ratio for second-hand housing to 60%. Some insiders rated it as "the most stringent control method in history", and chased down housing prices in all directions.
Phenomenon 2: Spring Festival property market turnover fell sharply
Under the influence of these factors, it seems inevitable that the property market around the Spring Festival will cool down. As the Beijing Construction Commission Real Estate Trading Network suspended the online signing work, the turnover of new houses is still unknown. In the past two days, the reporter surveyed several real estates near southwest Beijing and found that only a few two or three second-hand housing agencies were "on duty", but no buyers bought them.
According to statistics, during the 7 days of the Spring Festival, Beijing Net signed 41 sets of second-hand houses, all of which were signed by intermediaries, and all of them basically reached an agreement beforehand. They signed online in advance during the holiday and waited until February 9 to centralize the transfer. It is understood that under the influence of policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and cancellation of preferential taxes and fees, the transaction volume will definitely fall. It is expected that the transaction volume of commercial housing and second-hand housing in Beijing this year may fall by 2-3%.
Not only in Beijing, the reporter learned that the trading volume in various places has plummeted during the Spring Festival. Among them, transactions in the central area of ​​Guangzhou are now zero, and many districts in the main city of Chongqing are also "grainless." The transaction in the second-tier cities such as Foshan, Zhongshan, and Zhuhai in the Pearl River Delta has dropped to single digits, while the Spring Festival holidays in Shenzhen, Nanjing, and Shanghai are only ten. Several sets or dozens of suites.
Phenomenon 3: There is no downward trend in house prices
The reporter noticed that house prices in first-tier cities across the country did not fall with the volume of transactions, there was an immediate downward adjustment, and no obvious discounts were found. According to the latest survey by Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate, 30% of the registered customers said that their intention to buy a house is still strong, saying that as long as there is a suitable house, they will immediately buy it.
In a random interview, the reporter found that there are still many people who are not confident about the price reduction, but they are very worried about the retaliatory rebound in house prices, and they are generally concerned about how hard the implementation of regulatory policies is. Some of the waiters are still waiting for Beijing and other places. A new round of regulations was introduced.
Some people in the industry believe that, generally speaking, the price reduction has to go through at least three stages, namely, "volume decline in price", "volume decline in price adjustment", "volume and price decline", in which the decline in transaction volume is the premise for developers to actively reduce prices, The decline in trading volume generally lasts for more than a month before it leads to price adjustments.
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