The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan reached 11.4%
Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Energy Administration, stated at the National Energy Work Conference held on the 6th that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China will reasonably control total energy consumption and vigorously adjust its energy structure. One of the important goals is to reach the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and strive to obtain a non-fossil energy share of 11.4% of primary energy consumption.
Increasing the proportion of new energy in energy consumption and controlling excessive growth in total coal consumption is not only an important focal point for adjusting the energy structure, but also a realistic path for reducing carbon emissions in the future. The relevant agencies predict that this means that China's new energy industry will drive 5 trillion yuan in investment in the next few years.
Zhang Ping, director of the State Development and Reform Commission, said that China has basically achieved the target of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP determined by the 11th Five-Year Plan. Zhang Ping revealed that the final statistics have not yet come out, but it is close to 20%. China's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" to determine the constraints of energy conservation and consumption targets is, "2010 energy consumption per unit of GDP than in 2005 decreased by about 20%."
In the past five years, China has been vigorously developing non-fossil energy, and hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power have accumulated more than 3 trillion kilowatt-hours in five years, replacing 1.5 billion tons of raw coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 3 billion tons. Looking ahead to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China will face more difficult emission reduction difficulties.
A number of experts from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Environmental Protection who participated in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan recently told the Economic Information Daily that the scope of energy saving and emission reduction during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is even smaller, and it will be even more difficult to tackle difficulties. Energy-saving emission reduction targets will be separately Lower than the "Eleventh Five-Year" set value.
In the eyes of policymakers, clean energy and renewable energy will play an important role in this more difficult battle. In response, Zhang Guobao said on the 6th that at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption reached 11.4%.
In order to achieve the above goals, Zhang Guobao said that under the premise of protecting the ecology and doing a good job of resettlement, it actively develops hydropower. China boasts abundant hydropower resources, 542 million kilowatt-hours of technological development, and an installed capacity of hydropower just exceeding 200 million kilowatt-hours, which still has great potential for development. To achieve the goal of 15% of non-fossil energy consumption in 2020, more than half need hydropower to complete. At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, hydropower accounts for about 6.5% of primary energy consumption.
At the same time, it will effectively develop nuclear power based on ensuring safety; actively develop wind power, focus on the development of wind power bases of 10 million kilowatts in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang, accelerate the development of offshore wind power, and steadily develop solar energy; by 2015, the area of ​​solar heat utilization will reach 400 million yuan. cubic meter.
In the “12th Five-Year†structural optimization and energy-saving emission reduction environment, the proportion of coal in primary energy will be reduced to a greater extent. According to Chang Jiangbing, Secretary of Planning and Development of the National Energy Administration, the optimization of China's energy structure during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will be further advanced. It is expected that by 2015, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption will decrease from 70% in 2009 to about 63%.
The 7% of the space that is given up by coal and freed up is naturally a clean energy source that emits less carbon. Jiang Bing gave a set of data: It is estimated that by 2015 China's natural gas will increase by 4.4 percentage points in the proportion of primary energy, hydropower and nuclear power will increase by 1.5 percentage points in the proportion of primary energy, and new energy sources such as wind power, solar energy and biomass energy The proportion of primary energy increased by 1.8 percentage points.
Some media disclosed that at the National Coal Working Conference held in November 2010, the National Energy Administration proposed that the “12th Five-Year Plan†coal production capacity be controlled at 3.8 billion tons, including 100 million tons of imported coal. As the output of China’s coal has exceeded 3.2 billion tons in 2010, this means that in the five years of 2015, China’s capacity will increase by 500 million tons, an average annual increase of 100 million tons. “This means that in the next five years, We must maintain the current production will be a problem." A person in charge of a large domestic coal company told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter.
Opportunity sparks wave of new energy investment Experts interviewed by the reporter of the “Economic Information Daily†believe that to realize the goal of “non-fossil energy at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach 11.4%â€, China’s next few years must It will set off a wave of investment in emerging energy industries such as nuclear, wind, solar and clean coal.
Donghai Securities said that in the future, China's energy demand growth rate exceeding the world average, the pressure of energy-saving emission reduction and China's commitment to the world in energy-saving emission reduction issues is the cornerstone of the long-term good to the new energy industry.
Zhang Guobao said that China will include reasonable control of total energy consumption in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan,†and will make it a restrictive measure to significantly reduce the intensity of energy consumption and the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions.
Officials from the National Energy Administration revealed that the industry-awaited New Energy Industry Development Plan has been submitted to the State Council. The planning period is from 2011 to 2020. During the planning period, cumulative investment will increase by 5 trillion yuan, including renewable energy. Trillion to 3 trillion yuan, wind power 1.5 trillion yuan, solar energy 200 billion to 300 billion yuan.
Analysts pointed out that the Chinese government's encouragement of the development of new energy industries from the fiscal or price policy will promote the development of this industry from the initial stage to the long-term stage. This process will generate many investment opportunities. These opportunities are not only in the individual industry itself, but also more to promote the development of the entire industry chain.
In terms of hydropower, it is reported that by 2020, the hydropower production target will increase from 380 million kilowatt-hours initially determined to about 430 million kilowatt-hours, and the planned hydropower start-up during the 12th Five-Year Plan period may increase by 50 million kwh. This means that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, hydropower development and equipment listed companies are expected to enjoy more than expected policy support and market interest.
In terms of nuclear power, an analysis report from Datong Securities stated that China will enter the peak period of nuclear power construction in 2011, and nearly 30 million kilowatt-hours of nuclear power projects under construction will boost the demand for nuclear power equipment, and the industry boom will come on schedule. Through accumulating in the early stage and relying on the A P1000 self-contained project, the domesticization of nuclear power equipment in China has accelerated. Therefore, the investment feast of nuclear power under the background of localization will fully benefit domestic nuclear equipment manufacturers.
In terms of wind power, the forecast report issued by the Global Wind Energy Council stated that in 2010, 600,000 employees in the wind power industry installed an aircrew every 30 minutes, and in every 3 installed air conditioners, there was one in China. . By 2020, China's domestic wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 10 times today, to 250 million kWh. By 2030, the global wind energy market will be three times the size of today, and the required investment scale will reach 2020 billion euros.
The lack of bottleneck core technology During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s new energy market and industry are facing a lot of bottlenecks at the same time of rapid growth. Among them, the core technologies are not in the country and the rapid expansion has become the two major diseases that are commonly recognized in the industry.
A report released by the United Nations Development Program in Beijing said that more than 70% of energy-saving emission reduction technologies rely on imports. The reporter retrieved from the development report that under the 2050 emission reduction scenario, China will be in the energy sector from 2010 to 2050 ( More than 40 technologies, mainly in the power sector, and steel, cement, transportation, construction, and general-purpose technologies require a cumulative incremental investment of 14.2 trillion U.S. dollars.
What is widely criticized abroad is that China’s determination to develop a low-carbon economy is more reflected in the large investment in emission reduction projects such as clean energy rather than scientific innovation.
The rapid expansion is the biggest challenge to the new energy industry in the latter part of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Take wind power as an example. In September 2010, the State Council issued a notice to “inhibit overcapacity in the wind power industry.†Several officials of the National Energy Administration were on different occasions. Explained to the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that excess capacity is wind power equipment. During the investigation in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia, the reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" found that the current wind-wind disqualification in China is inevitable.
Professor Zhang Pei, an assistant to the president of North China Electric Power University, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily that some local governments did not have overall plans for wind power projects, leading to the phenomenon that wind power is not a net phenomenon in some regions.
“Power supply construction and power grid construction have not formed a good supporting system, leading to the construction of power grids that cannot keep up with the rapid development of wind power supply planning. Secondly, there is also a problem with the matching between power supplies. Wind power, as a kind of power supply with a lot of power in the evening, is to guarantee the supply of heat. On the basis of protecting the people's livelihood, the margin of load that is left for wind power is relatively limited,†Zhang said.
A number of local power company executives also said in an interview with the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the local wind power grids encountered limited power output when the wind power grid connected to the system's low load. This is mainly due to the insufficiency of local wind power absorption capacity and the inability of the system to adjust peak capacity.
Another example is the photovoltaic industry. Datong Securities stated that the risks of the domestic photovoltaic industry are also accumulating and the industrial structure of “two out†industries has not been substantially improved. Although the polysilicon industry in the upper reaches of the industry chain has developed rapidly in recent years, the self-sufficiency rate is still about 50%. In the area of ​​downstream photovoltaic applications, although the development of the domestic market has accelerated in recent years, due to the delay in the launch of the benchmark price for the Internet, the domestic photovoltaic market has not yet fully started.
Datong Securities suggests that due to the small scale of the market and the large technological changes, the cost of traditional energy is higher. Therefore, in the early stage of development of the new energy industry, the government needs to adopt economic incentive policies to provide economic support and adopt mandatory or Instructive policies to expand the market size.
Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Energy Administration, stated at the National Energy Work Conference held on the 6th that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China will reasonably control total energy consumption and vigorously adjust its energy structure. One of the important goals is to reach the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and strive to obtain a non-fossil energy share of 11.4% of primary energy consumption.
Increasing the proportion of new energy in energy consumption and controlling excessive growth in total coal consumption is not only an important focal point for adjusting the energy structure, but also a realistic path for reducing carbon emissions in the future. The relevant agencies predict that this means that China's new energy industry will drive 5 trillion yuan in investment in the next few years.
Zhang Ping, director of the State Development and Reform Commission, said that China has basically achieved the target of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP determined by the 11th Five-Year Plan. Zhang Ping revealed that the final statistics have not yet come out, but it is close to 20%. China's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" to determine the constraints of energy conservation and consumption targets is, "2010 energy consumption per unit of GDP than in 2005 decreased by about 20%."
In the past five years, China has been vigorously developing non-fossil energy, and hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power have accumulated more than 3 trillion kilowatt-hours in five years, replacing 1.5 billion tons of raw coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 3 billion tons. Looking ahead to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China will face more difficult emission reduction difficulties.
A number of experts from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Environmental Protection who participated in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan recently told the Economic Information Daily that the scope of energy saving and emission reduction during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is even smaller, and it will be even more difficult to tackle difficulties. Energy-saving emission reduction targets will be separately Lower than the "Eleventh Five-Year" set value.
In the eyes of policymakers, clean energy and renewable energy will play an important role in this more difficult battle. In response, Zhang Guobao said on the 6th that at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption reached 11.4%.
In order to achieve the above goals, Zhang Guobao said that under the premise of protecting the ecology and doing a good job of resettlement, it actively develops hydropower. China boasts abundant hydropower resources, 542 million kilowatt-hours of technological development, and an installed capacity of hydropower just exceeding 200 million kilowatt-hours, which still has great potential for development. To achieve the goal of 15% of non-fossil energy consumption in 2020, more than half need hydropower to complete. At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, hydropower accounts for about 6.5% of primary energy consumption.
At the same time, it will effectively develop nuclear power based on ensuring safety; actively develop wind power, focus on the development of wind power bases of 10 million kilowatts in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang, accelerate the development of offshore wind power, and steadily develop solar energy; by 2015, the area of ​​solar heat utilization will reach 400 million yuan. cubic meter.
In the “12th Five-Year†structural optimization and energy-saving emission reduction environment, the proportion of coal in primary energy will be reduced to a greater extent. According to Chang Jiangbing, Secretary of Planning and Development of the National Energy Administration, the optimization of China's energy structure during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will be further advanced. It is expected that by 2015, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption will decrease from 70% in 2009 to about 63%.
The 7% of the space that is given up by coal and freed up is naturally a clean energy source that emits less carbon. Jiang Bing gave a set of data: It is estimated that by 2015 China's natural gas will increase by 4.4 percentage points in the proportion of primary energy, hydropower and nuclear power will increase by 1.5 percentage points in the proportion of primary energy, and new energy sources such as wind power, solar energy and biomass energy The proportion of primary energy increased by 1.8 percentage points.
Some media disclosed that at the National Coal Working Conference held in November 2010, the National Energy Administration proposed that the “12th Five-Year Plan†coal production capacity be controlled at 3.8 billion tons, including 100 million tons of imported coal. As the output of China’s coal has exceeded 3.2 billion tons in 2010, this means that in the five years of 2015, China’s capacity will increase by 500 million tons, an average annual increase of 100 million tons. “This means that in the next five years, We must maintain the current production will be a problem." A person in charge of a large domestic coal company told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter.
Opportunity sparks wave of new energy investment Experts interviewed by the reporter of the “Economic Information Daily†believe that to realize the goal of “non-fossil energy at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach 11.4%â€, China’s next few years must It will set off a wave of investment in emerging energy industries such as nuclear, wind, solar and clean coal.
Donghai Securities said that in the future, China's energy demand growth rate exceeding the world average, the pressure of energy-saving emission reduction and China's commitment to the world in energy-saving emission reduction issues is the cornerstone of the long-term good to the new energy industry.
Zhang Guobao said that China will include reasonable control of total energy consumption in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan,†and will make it a restrictive measure to significantly reduce the intensity of energy consumption and the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions.
Officials from the National Energy Administration revealed that the industry-awaited New Energy Industry Development Plan has been submitted to the State Council. The planning period is from 2011 to 2020. During the planning period, cumulative investment will increase by 5 trillion yuan, including renewable energy. Trillion to 3 trillion yuan, wind power 1.5 trillion yuan, solar energy 200 billion to 300 billion yuan.
Analysts pointed out that the Chinese government's encouragement of the development of new energy industries from the fiscal or price policy will promote the development of this industry from the initial stage to the long-term stage. This process will generate many investment opportunities. These opportunities are not only in the individual industry itself, but also more to promote the development of the entire industry chain.
In terms of hydropower, it is reported that by 2020, the hydropower production target will increase from 380 million kilowatt-hours initially determined to about 430 million kilowatt-hours, and the planned hydropower start-up during the 12th Five-Year Plan period may increase by 50 million kwh. This means that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, hydropower development and equipment listed companies are expected to enjoy more than expected policy support and market interest.
In terms of nuclear power, an analysis report from Datong Securities stated that China will enter the peak period of nuclear power construction in 2011, and nearly 30 million kilowatt-hours of nuclear power projects under construction will boost the demand for nuclear power equipment, and the industry boom will come on schedule. Through accumulating in the early stage and relying on the A P1000 self-contained project, the domesticization of nuclear power equipment in China has accelerated. Therefore, the investment feast of nuclear power under the background of localization will fully benefit domestic nuclear equipment manufacturers.
In terms of wind power, the forecast report issued by the Global Wind Energy Council stated that in 2010, 600,000 employees in the wind power industry installed an aircrew every 30 minutes, and in every 3 installed air conditioners, there was one in China. . By 2020, China's domestic wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 10 times today, to 250 million kWh. By 2030, the global wind energy market will be three times the size of today, and the required investment scale will reach 2020 billion euros.
The lack of bottleneck core technology During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s new energy market and industry are facing a lot of bottlenecks at the same time of rapid growth. Among them, the core technologies are not in the country and the rapid expansion has become the two major diseases that are commonly recognized in the industry.
A report released by the United Nations Development Program in Beijing said that more than 70% of energy-saving emission reduction technologies rely on imports. The reporter retrieved from the development report that under the 2050 emission reduction scenario, China will be in the energy sector from 2010 to 2050 ( More than 40 technologies, mainly in the power sector, and steel, cement, transportation, construction, and general-purpose technologies require a cumulative incremental investment of 14.2 trillion U.S. dollars.
What is widely criticized abroad is that China’s determination to develop a low-carbon economy is more reflected in the large investment in emission reduction projects such as clean energy rather than scientific innovation.
The rapid expansion is the biggest challenge to the new energy industry in the latter part of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Take wind power as an example. In September 2010, the State Council issued a notice to “inhibit overcapacity in the wind power industry.†Several officials of the National Energy Administration were on different occasions. Explained to the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that excess capacity is wind power equipment. During the investigation in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia, the reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" found that the current wind-wind disqualification in China is inevitable.
Professor Zhang Pei, an assistant to the president of North China Electric Power University, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily that some local governments did not have overall plans for wind power projects, leading to the phenomenon that wind power is not a net phenomenon in some regions.
“Power supply construction and power grid construction have not formed a good supporting system, leading to the construction of power grids that cannot keep up with the rapid development of wind power supply planning. Secondly, there is also a problem with the matching between power supplies. Wind power, as a kind of power supply with a lot of power in the evening, is to guarantee the supply of heat. On the basis of protecting the people's livelihood, the margin of load that is left for wind power is relatively limited,†Zhang said.
A number of local power company executives also said in an interview with the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the local wind power grids encountered limited power output when the wind power grid connected to the system's low load. This is mainly due to the insufficiency of local wind power absorption capacity and the inability of the system to adjust peak capacity.
Another example is the photovoltaic industry. Datong Securities stated that the risks of the domestic photovoltaic industry are also accumulating and the industrial structure of “two out†industries has not been substantially improved. Although the polysilicon industry in the upper reaches of the industry chain has developed rapidly in recent years, the self-sufficiency rate is still about 50%. In the area of ​​downstream photovoltaic applications, although the development of the domestic market has accelerated in recent years, due to the delay in the launch of the benchmark price for the Internet, the domestic photovoltaic market has not yet fully started.
Datong Securities suggests that due to the small scale of the market and the large technological changes, the cost of traditional energy is higher. Therefore, in the early stage of development of the new energy industry, the government needs to adopt economic incentive policies to provide economic support and adopt mandatory or Instructive policies to expand the market size.
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