In the week of December 3, the three major international coal indices all rose, and industry insiders believe that a firm international coal price will push up domestic coal prices and affect China's imports.
Comprehensive media December 7 news, the week of December 3, the three major international coal index have varying degrees of gains, of which the European ARA coal index rose the most intense. As of December 3, the thermal coal price index for Newcastle Port in Australia was US$111.24/tonne, up by US$5.47/ton from US$105.77/ton last week, or by 5.17%; the coal price index for Richard Port, South Africa was last week at 103.75. The US dollar/ton basis rose by US$3.39/ton to US$107.14/ton, or 3.27%; the European ARA market thermal coal price index rose by US$8.33/ton to US$117.12/ton on the basis of US$108.79/ton last week. The increase was as high as 7.66%.
Industry analysts believe that the strong demand driven by the rapid development of emerging economies such as China and India has supported international coal prices to some extent. However, if international coal prices remain high, it will inevitably affect the import volume of China's coal.
Energy industry researchers pointed out that in the previous week (week of November 26th), international coal market prices have shown a downward trend, with Australia and South Africa’s coal prices all declined slightly, while the European coal market continued to rise, but The increase has slowed. Last week, international coal prices suddenly rebounded strongly. The increase in European coal prices is closer to US$10/ton. According to this trend, international coal prices are likely to exceed US$120/ton by the end of this year. A great degree of harm to the stable operation of the international coal market.
In fact, after careful comparison, it is not difficult for us to find that the recent trend in international coal prices and international crude oil prices tends to be highly consistent. The Brent crude oil traded in London last week rose to US$89.8 per barrel, approaching US$90/. Barrel mark, and before this, international crude oil prices have also shown a downward trend. It is inseparable that international coal prices and crude oil prices tend to be consistent and they are mutually substitute. The driving factor behind the sharp increase in both prices is the loose monetary policy of the United States and the depreciation of the US dollar. It is the continued devaluation of the US dollar that has led to the sharp rise in the prices of international agricultural products, energy, and metals, and the pressure of global inflation. Intensified.
The strong rebound in international coal prices will also bring tremendous pressure on the coal market in China. During the previous two months, China’s coal prices have been on a rising channel, and high domestic coal prices have caused tremendous pressure on downstream companies. At the same time, it also poses a major obstacle to China’s fight against inflation. In the past week, domestic coal prices have begun to show signs of stabilizing, and some coal types have also declined slightly. However, the sharp increase in international coal prices once again caused a major adverse impact on the stability of China's coal market. Affected by the trend of international coal prices, domestic coal prices are likely to rise again.
The "2010-2015 China Coal Industry Investment Analysis and Prospects Forecast Report" pointed out that in the first 10 months of this year, China's net coal import volume has exceeded 100 million tons, while the previous October coal imports increased by about 50% year-on-year, domestic coal The market is increasingly linked with the international coal market. Therefore, under the circumstances that international coal prices have risen sharply, domestic coal prices will also be affected.
Comprehensive media December 7 news, the week of December 3, the three major international coal index have varying degrees of gains, of which the European ARA coal index rose the most intense. As of December 3, the thermal coal price index for Newcastle Port in Australia was US$111.24/tonne, up by US$5.47/ton from US$105.77/ton last week, or by 5.17%; the coal price index for Richard Port, South Africa was last week at 103.75. The US dollar/ton basis rose by US$3.39/ton to US$107.14/ton, or 3.27%; the European ARA market thermal coal price index rose by US$8.33/ton to US$117.12/ton on the basis of US$108.79/ton last week. The increase was as high as 7.66%.
Industry analysts believe that the strong demand driven by the rapid development of emerging economies such as China and India has supported international coal prices to some extent. However, if international coal prices remain high, it will inevitably affect the import volume of China's coal.
Energy industry researchers pointed out that in the previous week (week of November 26th), international coal market prices have shown a downward trend, with Australia and South Africa’s coal prices all declined slightly, while the European coal market continued to rise, but The increase has slowed. Last week, international coal prices suddenly rebounded strongly. The increase in European coal prices is closer to US$10/ton. According to this trend, international coal prices are likely to exceed US$120/ton by the end of this year. A great degree of harm to the stable operation of the international coal market.
In fact, after careful comparison, it is not difficult for us to find that the recent trend in international coal prices and international crude oil prices tends to be highly consistent. The Brent crude oil traded in London last week rose to US$89.8 per barrel, approaching US$90/. Barrel mark, and before this, international crude oil prices have also shown a downward trend. It is inseparable that international coal prices and crude oil prices tend to be consistent and they are mutually substitute. The driving factor behind the sharp increase in both prices is the loose monetary policy of the United States and the depreciation of the US dollar. It is the continued devaluation of the US dollar that has led to the sharp rise in the prices of international agricultural products, energy, and metals, and the pressure of global inflation. Intensified.
The strong rebound in international coal prices will also bring tremendous pressure on the coal market in China. During the previous two months, China’s coal prices have been on a rising channel, and high domestic coal prices have caused tremendous pressure on downstream companies. At the same time, it also poses a major obstacle to China’s fight against inflation. In the past week, domestic coal prices have begun to show signs of stabilizing, and some coal types have also declined slightly. However, the sharp increase in international coal prices once again caused a major adverse impact on the stability of China's coal market. Affected by the trend of international coal prices, domestic coal prices are likely to rise again.
The "2010-2015 China Coal Industry Investment Analysis and Prospects Forecast Report" pointed out that in the first 10 months of this year, China's net coal import volume has exceeded 100 million tons, while the previous October coal imports increased by about 50% year-on-year, domestic coal The market is increasingly linked with the international coal market. Therefore, under the circumstances that international coal prices have risen sharply, domestic coal prices will also be affected.
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