Research on the Key Influencing Factors of the Price Trend of Methanol**

one. Fundamental Analysis of the Methanol Industry 1.1 Production of Methanol in China According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, currently China's methanol plant with natural gas accounts for about 30% of the total domestic production capacity, and coal-based raw materials account for about 66%, with coke oven gas About 4% of raw materials. As of the end of 2010, China's methanol industry had 282 methanol production enterprises, with a total methanol capacity of 30.86 million tons, including 229 coal-to-methanol enterprises, 20.68 million tons of production capacity, accounting for 67% of the total methanol production capacity; For 32 companies, the production capacity was 7.39 million tons; the coke oven gas production company was 21 and the production capacity was 2.79 million tons.

The main raw material for methanol production in China is coal, followed by natural gas and coke oven gas. Coal-to-methanol accounts for about 61% of total production capacity. The use of 1.4-I of coal per ton of methanol is required. 6 tons calculation, according to the current market price of coal and other processing costs, the domestic coal-to-methanol production costs to be 2,200 yuan / ton.

The cost of using coke oven gas to produce methanol is slightly lower. According to Heilongjiang Baotailong Group (601011) Group, the cost of local production of methanol from coke oven gas is about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing methanol with other processes is 200 to 300 yuan/ton, and at present, methanol has fallen below 2,000 yuan/ton. Under the production situation, it should be said that it has strong market competitiveness and anti-risk capabilities.

China has a large number of methanol production companies, but the scale is generally small and the competitiveness is not enough. The average size of China's methanol companies is only about 120,000 tons, the average output is only about 60,000 tons, the scale of the equipment is small, the consumption of energy and materials is high, the use of resources is not reasonable, the unit's productivity investment is high, and the production cost is high.

1.2 Methanol imports China's methanol imports mainly come from countries in the Middle East, accounting for 56.42% of the total imports, followed by New Zealand, accounting for 32.18%. Methanol in the Middle East, New Zealand and other places, due to its rich natural gas resources, low prices, low cost and strong competitiveness, has a huge cost advantage over domestically produced methanol. The production of 1 ton of methanol uses about 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas. According to the local gas price, the total production cost of methanol is equivalent to only 1100-1200 yuan/ton. In addition, the scale of foreign enterprises is large. At present, the capacity of the largest methanol plant in the world has reached 1.7 million tons per year, and the unit production investment has dropped significantly.

In 2008, the sales price of the domestic methanol market was generally between RMB 3,000 and RMB 3,800/ton, while the import price of imported methanol was only RMB 1,600-1,700/ton.

1.3 Consumption of Methanol in China The supply and demand pattern of China's coal-rich and low-oil fossil fuels determines that the coal chemical industry, which uses coal as the main raw material, will be the focus of future development. The main application areas of methanol are mainly formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, methanol gasoline, and methanol to olefins. According to 2009 China Plastics Industry Annual Meeting data projections, in 2009 the domestic methanol apparent consumption of 16.8062 million tons, of which the formaldehyde industry consumed methanol up to 3.31 million tons, accounting for 32% of the total methanol consumption; followed by methanol burning Gasoline and dimethyl ether consumed 1.993 million tons (12%) of methanol and 3.654 million tons (22%) of methanol, respectively, and 6.1 million tons (10%) of methanol was consumed by acetic acid; methanol was consumed in other industries such as pesticides, pharmaceuticals, DMF, and MTBE. About 3.82 million tons. As the demand for methanol in the industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides is relatively stable, methanol fuels and methanol-to-olefins are the industries that have the largest impact on China's methanol demand.

two. Methanol spot price trend and its influencing factors The Zhangjiagang Chemical Electronic Market is under the leadership of the Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Administrative Committee and with strong support, well-known logistics companies, professional market development companies, information consulting companies and other companies closely cooperate with the management committee. ,Professional to provide our customers with the online spot trading of chemical products and information, logistics, finance and other integrated services, is the only chemical electronics market in Zhangjiagang.

Comparing the listed commodity varieties, we can see that the price trend of methanol electronic discs is very similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum.

The reason is that aluminum production is a typical electric tiger, and electricity accounts for about 30% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. With methanol as a commodity, the price trend is similar to that of aluminum, reflecting to some extent its stronger role as a fuel energy source in the market, while the demand for chemical products such as formaldehyde and acetic acid downstream of methanol is relatively stable, affecting the price of methanol. weaker. Therefore, the methanol spot and the price trend of ** on the one hand, we must pay attention to the demand for methanol chemical raw materials such as methanol and olefins and other areas of development, but it is more critical to see whether the energy needs of methanol can be effectively released. The greatest impact of the energy demand downstream of methanol in China is the field of alcohol ether fuels.

three. The key to the future trend of methanol prices - the promotion of the use of alcohol fuels As a raw material for energy and chemical industry, methanol plays a more prominent role in energy and will guide the future price trend of formaldehyde. The current energy situation in China is coal-based, accounting for 70% of energy consumption. Followed by oil, it accounted for 20% of energy consumption, and finally natural gas, accounting for about 10%. As a coal chemical product, methanol is the main raw material for methanol fuel and dimethyl ether. The trend of methanol prices depends to a large extent on the promotion and use of alcohol fuels. However, it is difficult for the demand for alcohol ether fuels to rapidly and effectively amplify the national standards for alcohol ether fuels. And due to the scale of production and technical reasons, whether the cost of alcohol ether fuel has market advantages compared with the current LPG, LNG, etc., whether it can be widely used, but also depends on the price of crude oil and natural gas. With the rising prices of international crude oil and natural gas, as well as the introduction and implementation of energy-saving and environmental protection standards and requirements for carbon emissions, the market share of alcohol ether fuels will continue to expand, and its demand potential is huge.