February 2012 situation in the ABS market 1. The dynamics of the domestic situation The central bank’s RRR cut in February was a good news for the commodity market. However, although it did not achieve a complete stimulus for domestic commodities, the overall macro situation was pre-emptive. Will warm up. In the same way, loose monetary policies in Europe and the United States have caused global liquidity easing, which has stimulated domestic commodity trading from the other side. However, it is only a stimulus. From February's data, the global commodity market has improved slightly, but the current market demand remains. Indifferent.
The price of New York crude oil, which is also likely to cause changes in the current situation, has risen sharply since February. It has broken the stalemate of the “hundred dollar shock†and was once approaching US$110/barrel. The main reason is that the US economic recovery is accelerating. European debt The crisis has been controlled, as well as the situation in Iran and other factors. However, at the end of the month, it was also plagued by many problems and the high international oil price retraced.
However, unlike the crude oil-led commodities market, the data as of the end of February showed that the mainstream of China's ABS domestic materials has reached 15900-16800 yuan / ton, up 500-600 yuan / ton compared with the end of January. Due to factors such as market demand and excess capacity in 2011, the domestic ABS market did not continue to rise after the holiday and outside favorable conditions. In early February, market prices continued to climb as a result of soaring costs and rising petrochemical prices. Since mid-February, due to the oversupply of local areas and the small demand, the market has seen slight adjustments. During the period between East China and South China, the market was markedly different and the offer gap widened. The South China market was dragged down by the high local stocks and sluggish recovery in demand. Prices once fell slightly. The East China market is dominated by sideways, with limited adjustment.
Although the domestic market is important, the cost of international raw materials has soared. As of the end of February, the Hong Kong dollar market price has increased by 90-100 US dollars/ton from the end of January to 2100-2200 US dollars/ton. Just as the turmoil in the domestic US dollar market rose slowly in February, Asia’s suppliers continued to increase their factory offerings, and the domestic US dollar market followed suit, causing the same growth. However, due to the lack of market purchasing power, it is difficult to consume market stocks, and the actual transaction price is often lower than the quoted price. By the end of February, the domestic *** market was slightly loose. However, high oil prices and high costs caused suppliers' prices to continue to rise, and the US dollar market rebounded slightly.
2. The dynamic situation in foreign countries Due to the increase in raw materials in February, the prices in the Asian market drastically increased. Market demand subsequently weakened due to weak market demand. At present, the high level of butadiene has not affected the normal production of ABS equipment in Asia. However, if the upward trend continues, the impact is not as important. Similarly, the ABS market in North West Europe increased by 80 Euros/ton, which did not show significant fluctuations due to stable market demand in February. Apart from the cost, the rise in Asian sources also played a supporting role in the market. According to news, BASF's styrene plant in Germany is scheduled to be overhauled in March. Currently, there is a bullish sentiment in the northwestern European market. However, local manufacturers have already made reserves of raw materials and will not affect the normal production of downstream equipment in the northwest European market. The ABS market in the United States is strong and its purchasing demand is performing well. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, rail transportation delivered prices to 134-136.1 cents/lb. In the same way that raw material costs continued to rise in the upper reaches of the United States, prices in the United States rose by 5 cents per pound in February.
3. Late-stage market outlook At present, domestically, the reserve ratio was lowered to confirm the fine-tuning of monetary policy, and some local governments continued to tentatively relax real estate control. Although Foshan, Wuhu, and Shanghai eventually ended in failure, the market eventually came to an end. The trend is clear. Judging from this, the probability that the Chinese economy will continue to deteriorate in the future is relatively small. Since December 2011, the monetary policy of the world's central banks has gradually eased, and most global commodity prices have also bottomed out in mid-December of 2011. At the same time, judging from the current situation in Iran, it is likely to further deteriorate, resulting in an upward trend in international oil prices that will continue. Similarly, some organizations believe that global commodity prices will be biased in the next three months, both in macro and fundamental terms. Looking back at the domestic ABS market experienced a period of digesting in February, but due to the current market demand for procurement is still weak, and the increase in material costs, as well as excess inventory and other reasons, resulting in some companies tentatively reduce production, to avoid excessive loss, the same According to the current market conditions, it is expected that the overall market will remain stable, and it is still necessary to be cautiously optimistic.
The price of New York crude oil, which is also likely to cause changes in the current situation, has risen sharply since February. It has broken the stalemate of the “hundred dollar shock†and was once approaching US$110/barrel. The main reason is that the US economic recovery is accelerating. European debt The crisis has been controlled, as well as the situation in Iran and other factors. However, at the end of the month, it was also plagued by many problems and the high international oil price retraced.
However, unlike the crude oil-led commodities market, the data as of the end of February showed that the mainstream of China's ABS domestic materials has reached 15900-16800 yuan / ton, up 500-600 yuan / ton compared with the end of January. Due to factors such as market demand and excess capacity in 2011, the domestic ABS market did not continue to rise after the holiday and outside favorable conditions. In early February, market prices continued to climb as a result of soaring costs and rising petrochemical prices. Since mid-February, due to the oversupply of local areas and the small demand, the market has seen slight adjustments. During the period between East China and South China, the market was markedly different and the offer gap widened. The South China market was dragged down by the high local stocks and sluggish recovery in demand. Prices once fell slightly. The East China market is dominated by sideways, with limited adjustment.
Although the domestic market is important, the cost of international raw materials has soared. As of the end of February, the Hong Kong dollar market price has increased by 90-100 US dollars/ton from the end of January to 2100-2200 US dollars/ton. Just as the turmoil in the domestic US dollar market rose slowly in February, Asia’s suppliers continued to increase their factory offerings, and the domestic US dollar market followed suit, causing the same growth. However, due to the lack of market purchasing power, it is difficult to consume market stocks, and the actual transaction price is often lower than the quoted price. By the end of February, the domestic *** market was slightly loose. However, high oil prices and high costs caused suppliers' prices to continue to rise, and the US dollar market rebounded slightly.
2. The dynamic situation in foreign countries Due to the increase in raw materials in February, the prices in the Asian market drastically increased. Market demand subsequently weakened due to weak market demand. At present, the high level of butadiene has not affected the normal production of ABS equipment in Asia. However, if the upward trend continues, the impact is not as important. Similarly, the ABS market in North West Europe increased by 80 Euros/ton, which did not show significant fluctuations due to stable market demand in February. Apart from the cost, the rise in Asian sources also played a supporting role in the market. According to news, BASF's styrene plant in Germany is scheduled to be overhauled in March. Currently, there is a bullish sentiment in the northwestern European market. However, local manufacturers have already made reserves of raw materials and will not affect the normal production of downstream equipment in the northwest European market. The ABS market in the United States is strong and its purchasing demand is performing well. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, rail transportation delivered prices to 134-136.1 cents/lb. In the same way that raw material costs continued to rise in the upper reaches of the United States, prices in the United States rose by 5 cents per pound in February.
3. Late-stage market outlook At present, domestically, the reserve ratio was lowered to confirm the fine-tuning of monetary policy, and some local governments continued to tentatively relax real estate control. Although Foshan, Wuhu, and Shanghai eventually ended in failure, the market eventually came to an end. The trend is clear. Judging from this, the probability that the Chinese economy will continue to deteriorate in the future is relatively small. Since December 2011, the monetary policy of the world's central banks has gradually eased, and most global commodity prices have also bottomed out in mid-December of 2011. At the same time, judging from the current situation in Iran, it is likely to further deteriorate, resulting in an upward trend in international oil prices that will continue. Similarly, some organizations believe that global commodity prices will be biased in the next three months, both in macro and fundamental terms. Looking back at the domestic ABS market experienced a period of digesting in February, but due to the current market demand for procurement is still weak, and the increase in material costs, as well as excess inventory and other reasons, resulting in some companies tentatively reduce production, to avoid excessive loss, the same According to the current market conditions, it is expected that the overall market will remain stable, and it is still necessary to be cautiously optimistic.
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