According to statistics, in mid-July 2012, the average daily output of crude steel in 78 key statistical steel enterprises was 1,651,200 tons, down 0.38% from the previous month. It is estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in the middle of July will be 1,993,300 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous month. It is estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in the middle of July will be 1,982,300 tons, and the capacity of steel mills will not decrease. In terms of inventory, as of August 3, the social inventories of major domestic steel cities were 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 79,900 tons from July 27, and inventory fell by 0.5%. Steel inventories continued to fall, and steel traders were still not optimistic about the trend of steel prices in the later period. The domestic stock of rebar in China was 6,057,200 tons, which was 113,300 tons less than that on July 27. The restocking speed of rebar began to accelerate. In terms of regions, the regions with the fastest decline in growth rate were in Central South and East China. The social inventory of rebar decreased by 65,200 tons and 25,800 tons respectively. On the demand side, the amount of terminal purchases has not changed much. As of August 3, the weekly terminal purchase volume was 15,400 tons, which was basically the same as the previous month. Because the current high temperature and rainy weather is not suitable for construction on the site, coupled with the chaos of steel prices, the market mentality is unstable, the demand growth caused by price cuts has begun to slow down, and downstream customers have delayed purchasing. Most of the construction sites are used as they are, and the growth of terminal purchases is basically at Stagnation, weak downstream demand for price support is still very limited. On the spot side, with the strongening of the transaction and the continued decline in the price of steel mills, the business mentality has once again weakened, and steel prices have also fallen to a high level. On August 7, the national average price of rebar was 3,625 yuan / ton, down by 93 yuan / ton from July 31. Due to the downward price of iron ore and coke, the cost is reduced. According to the price of iron ore in Qingdao Port, according to the credit profit model of Jinxin, after deducting the national average price, the rebar profit on August 7 is -14.75. Yuan/ton, the estimated gross profit has rebounded. From historical data, as the cost moves down, rebar futures prices will continue to look for support. According to the data, the main reason for the increase in the daily production capacity of crude steel in mid-July came from the increase in production of small and medium-sized steel mills. The rebound in rebar futures and spot prices last week was mainly due to expectations that steel mills would cut production and insured prices, but the data made the market's expectations fall short, and rebar futures and spot prices fell. From the inventory data, the current social inventory pressure has been somewhat reduced compared with the previous period, but the amplification of steel mill inventory pressure is worthy of attention. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic steel market is quite prominent. The contract organization of iron and steel enterprises has encountered great difficulties, and the backlog of inventory in the factory is serious. Overall, due to the current increase in steel mill capacity, the company's inventory is high, downstream demand is not smooth, and costs continue to decline, there is still room for downside in the spot price. Rebar futures prices are still optimistic and will continue to decline.
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