Disk review:
On Tuesday, the underlying metals of the LME fell mostly due to copper dragged by copper. The increase in stocks and worries about future consumption, the long open positions pressured copper fell. Aluminum also suffered a decline due to its impact and ended down 28 US dollars at 2686 US dollars, slightly higher than the important support level. The transaction continued at a relatively high level, with the number of positions held on the next day drastically reduced by 8238 lots to 549,064 lots, and inventory was reduced by 500 tons to 676,500 tons.
On Wednesday, the drop in London Aluminum dragged Shanghai Aluminum lower, opening up after a period of flat consolidation, dragged down by Shanghai copper fell sharply to 19,780 yuan, but in the case of strong spot, the price rebounded, the end Closed at 20,050 yuan.
At the close of the day, the contract for the month of 6ll closed at 21,180 yuan/ton, +110 yuan, the main contract of 0701 closed at 2,050 yuan/ton, -140 yuan, and the remaining contracts fell by 100-190 yuan. Today's total market volume was 193,522 lots, with 188,048 total positions and 4,500 gross positions.
Market analysis:
In the case of low performance of Lon Aluminum, despite the fact that Shanghai Aluminum also fell due to its impact, Shanghai Aluminum’s performance is still relatively strong considering its decline. The strength of Shanghai Aluminum was mainly boosted by the strong domestic spot market. However, it needs to be explained that Alluminium is still the main reason that affects Shanghai Aluminum. At present, the comparative relationship between domestic and foreign aluminum is still maintained at a relatively high level of 7.3 or higher, and Shanghai Aluminum continues to be highly difficult to continue independently.
As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, Lon Aluminum is in a key position and will maintain its momentum in the short term, which will also lead to short-term lack of direction in Shanghai Aluminum. The author judged that London Aluminum had strong support near 2,680 US dollars, and there was no sudden bearish pressure. Aluminum futures will stay above 2680 U.S. dollars.
In addition, even though Lun Al's spot premium returned to more than 20 U.S. dollars, this is unfavorable for the forced stock market, but we cannot judge whether the forced squeeze in December will not occur. In the medium term, the author is cautiously optimistic.
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