The bearish factor is that the price of caprolactam has started to decrease

In July, the price of caprolactam rose by about 5.02%, and by the end of the month domestic caprolactam prices had risen by about 28,300 yuan/ton. In early August, domestic caprolactam prices continued to rise to about 28,500 yuan/ton. However, the current price of caprolactam has slightly loosened. The actual turnover of caprolactam in some areas has recently been reduced to around 27,500-27,800 yuan/ton.

Li Jianan, researcher of China Investment Advisor Chemical Industry Co., pointed out that from the perspective of the supply of caprolactam, as the caprolactam production facility of some companies is about to suspend production and maintenance, the supply and demand relationship of the caprolactam market is tightly expected to increase, which will support domestic caprolactam prices to continue to rise. However, due to the fact that the downstream market is mostly replenishment demand, and the recent international macroeconomic situation is not optimistic, the market panic has increased, the oil price plummeted, which will to some extent inhibit the rise in caprolactam prices.

According to relevant data, maintenance of caprolactam factories at home and abroad was more concentrated in October, and now these manufacturers have begun to stock up to ensure the normal supply of the contract volume at the time, which makes the supply of caprolactam relatively tight. Affected by this, traders’ reluctance to sell goods is more obvious. As a result, the market supply of caprolactam is tight.

In respect of downstream demand, due to the limited profit space and tight funding, the operating rate of some downstream companies has been continuously declining. The demand for caprolactam is mostly in short-term demand, and most of them are small orders. Therefore, it is currently The downstream demand for caprolactam is not optimistic.

In addition, on the macro level, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has intensified and the market panic aggravated. Last week, due to S&P downgrading the US’s long-term sovereign debt rating from AAA to AA+, the market’s expectation of US economic recession has increased. Crude oil prices have plummeted, which will also be detrimental to caprolactam prices.

The "investment analysis and prospects forecast report of China's basic organic chemical raw materials industry in 2011-2015" published by China Investment Advisor shows that caprolactam is mainly used in the two major fields of nylon 6 fiber and nylon 6 engineering plastic in China. Among them, nylon 6 fiber consumption of caprolactam accounted for about 85% of the total consumption of caprolactam, nylon 6 engineering plastics accounted for about 15% of the total consumption of caprolactam.

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