US Steel Market Supply and Demand and Price Quotes Analysis - Medium Thick Steel Plates

Supply:

In 2009, US plate production fell to the lowest level since 1988, only a quarter of the normal level, and it rebounded again in the third quarter of 2009. In the fourth quarter of 2009, plate production returned to normal again. The United States is still a large net exporter of plate. Plates are exported to Canada and Mexico in large quantities; at the same time, they are also exported to other overseas countries. The demand for imported U.S. plate in the country exceeds that of the U.S. local plate. Although the economy is still out of the recession, it still maintains the momentum of exports from the plate. Once the U.S. economy has returned to its original growth momentum, it will inevitably lead to tight supply of plate goods.

Demand:

U.S. plate demand has generally improved slightly. Demand in 2010 was better than in 2009, but it was not in an excellent state. By 2011, all plate markets, including the United States, showed upward momentum. Due to the deep economic recession, it is necessary for US plate demand to rebound to the highest peak level by 2012, and it will be necessary to wait until 2013. The energy sector is the largest end user in the U.S. plate. The current high level of oil prices is enough to ensure that most investors investing in energy can have profitable returns. In 2009, the pipeline steel pipe manufacturing industry using medium and thick plates as raw materials was temporarily returned to the market. However, the drop in natural gas prices has limited the demand for pipeline steel pipe and plate in the entire energy sector. Machine manufacturing is the second largest end user of plate. The U.S. machine output increased by 70% between 2002 and 2006, and then fell again to 2002 levels in 2009. The output of machinery will increase in 2010, but its output is still lower than the level in 2002. Therefore, the demand for plate in the U.S. machinery manufacturing industry still shows insufficient. Due to the excessive production of ships in recent years, the current number of ship operations is excessive, and the shipbuilding industry is approaching a state of complete shutdown. The US non-residential construction industry will stop its decline until mid-2010, so it is expected that the non-residential construction industry will pick up demand for plate after mid-2010.

price:

The U.S. plate market prices are currently below normal levels, with prices announced in early 2010. By the end of 2010, the production cost of plate will be 10% higher than at the beginning of 2010. The reason is that the booming Asian plate market has triggered an increase in the input costs of scrap and iron ore. Looking ahead, the price trend of the plate market in the US for a longer period of time in the future will not fall again to such a very low level. The demand for plate and the utilization rate of its production capacity will increase, and the market price of Asian plate The rapid rise again increases the pressure of rising raw material costs. By 2012 and 2013, the US plate market price will increase moderately. The shortage of iron ore and coke supply in 2015 is expected to trigger a rapid rise in the US plate market price.