Report on Chemical Products during the "Silver 10" Period

According to relevant data, the non-ferrous market in October compared with September can be described as "ice and two heavy days." The most obvious feature is that in October, apart from the small increase in tungsten concentrates and slight fluctuations in small metal plates (smaller declines ranged from 1% to 3%), other products all fell by more than 3%, and nickel prices even exceeded 10%. This is the darkest month for the non-ferrous market since the second half of the year. It is also the first decline since the average monthly increase and decrease in September; another point to note is that after this round of deep falls, the prices of most products are lower than last year’s “copper. After the plunge of the KCRC, the price of copper, aluminum and zinc all dropped by more than 5% year-on-year, and the rare earth has continued to fall for a year. Therefore, it can be said that the non-ferrous market entered the "winter" in advance.

Some hyper-expensive “Jin 9” market last month made the demand terminal overwhelm. The return of the market this month squeezed out the bubble that the market’s rapid rise in September had accumulated. In addition, the macroscopic inconvenience led to the entire metal outer disk market. Weak, but also affect the performance of the domestic market downturn, which is also consistent with the commodity supply and demand index BCI released this month, the business community in October BCI was -0.20 (0.33 in September), the average increase was -0.44% This reflects that the manufacturing economy had a slight contraction in the month compared with the previous month, and the economic upward momentum was insufficient. As prices have fallen, the operating rate and sales of domestic basic metal smelting companies have been affected to a certain extent. Due to factors such as environmental protection, raw ore output of the largest lead ore producer in Yunnan fell by 3%, and prices continued to decline. , Baotou Steel Rare Earth had to stop production insured; at the same time the post-holiday downturn in consumer spending has also become one of the factors of the decline in the market, due to processing companies in the "Golden September" increased horsepower started, finished goods inventory has increased substantially, the downstream is difficult to digest continuously With the recovery of copper, aluminum, galvanized and lead storage batteries, downstream companies had to reduce their orders. The copper plate and foil operating rate fell to 56.4% in October; and after the holiday, many domestic product inventories began to decline. At present, domestic copper, including social inventories, is still as high as more than 1.7 million tons. The total domestic aluminum ingot stock also exceeds 1.4 million tons, and the zinc stock exceeds 600,000 tons. Lead stocks are the least, but production has rebounded sharply, causing stocks to stop declining. The momentum has started to pick up. The rebound in production, inventory accumulation, and the weakening of demand will eventually lead the "Jin 9" market to "second kill" and the market will once again turn into a downturn.

Analysis of Fan Yanxia, ​​a non-ferrous business club, began in the fourth quarter, and China is about to enter the off-season seasonal consumption season. Many infrastructure projects are unlikely to start large-scale operations in the fourth quarter. The demand for non-ferrous metals will weaken again, and prices are still facing downward pressure. However, in October, the state again increased the introduction of policies. Nine ministries brewed and promoted the merger and reorganization of electrolytic aluminum and rare earth industries, as well as a series of funds to support positive policies such as small and medium-sized enterprises. A lot of infrastructure projects were before and after *** It will also bring certain benefits to the market in succession, but given that the demand side has not changed significantly, the “winter” market has just started, but some sectors, such as small metals, will usher in a dry period, and electricity prices will rise. Will lead to the price of some products such as silicon, small metals, precious metals in the late decline or shrink even gold and silver is likely to rebound and rebound, but the basic metal products will not be significantly improved later, or there will be polarization.