Current status and prospects of the photovoltaic industry

Solar power generation is an emerging renewable energy technology. Currently, the main applications of industrialization are solar photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation. Solar photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of modular battery components, convenient installation and maintenance, and flexible use. It is the most widely used technology for solar power generation. Solar thermal power generation uses a concentrating heat collecting system to heat the medium, and then uses traditional steam power generation equipment to generate electricity. In recent years, industrial demonstration projects have begun to increase.

PV. In the past 10 years, the annual output of global solar photovoltaic cells has increased by about 6 times, with an average annual growth rate of more than 50%. In 2010, the annual output of global solar photovoltaic cells was 16 million kilowatts, of which China's annual output was 10 million kilowatts. Grid-connected photovoltaic power plants and distributed grid-connected photovoltaic power generation systems combined with buildings are the main utilization methods of photovoltaic power generation. By 2010, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the world will exceed 40 million kilowatts. The main application markets are in Germany, Spain, Japan, and Italy, and Germany has a new installed capacity of 7 million kilowatts in 2010. With the increase in the scale, conversion efficiency and process level of solar photovoltaic power generation, the cost of the entire industry chain has rapidly declined. The price of solar photovoltaic modules has dropped from 4.5 US dollars per watt in 2000 to less than 1.5 US dollars in 2010, and the economic efficiency of solar photovoltaic power generation has increased significantly.

Photothermal power generation. Photothermal power generation, also known as solar thermal power generation, has not yet achieved large-scale development, but after a long period of trial operation, it has begun to enter large-scale commercial applications. At present, the United States, Spain, Germany, France, the United Arab Emirates, India and other countries have built or are building multiple thermal power stations. By the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of solar thermal power plants that have been connected to the grid by the world is 1.1 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of projects under construction is about 12 million kilowatts.

By the end of 2007, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems nationwide has reached 100,000 kilowatts (100MW), and the enterprises engaged in solar cell production have reached more than 50 photovoltaic power plants, with solar cell production capacity reaching 2.9 million kilowatts (2900MW) and annual output of solar cells. It has reached 1188MW, surpassing Japan and Europe, and has established a complete industrial chain consisting of raw material production and photovoltaic system construction. In particular, polysilicon material production has made significant progress, breaking through the annual output of 1,000 tons and breaking through. The bottleneck restriction on the production of solar cell raw materials has laid the foundation for the large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation in China. 2007 is a year of rapid development of China's solar photovoltaic industry. Benefiting from the long-term benefits of the solar industry, the entire photovoltaic industry has seen an unprecedented investment boom. Solar photovoltaic power generation will occupy an important seat in the world's energy consumption in the near future, not only to replace some of the conventional energy, but also to become the main body of the world's energy supply. It is estimated that by 2030, renewable energy will account for more than 30% of the total energy structure, and solar photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 10% of the world's total electricity supply; by 2040, renewable energy will account for the total More than 50% of energy consumption, solar photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 20% of total electricity; by the end of the 21st century, renewable energy will account for more than 80% of the energy structure, and solar power will account for more than 60%. These figures are sufficient to show the development prospects of the solar photovoltaic industry and its important strategic position in the energy field.

According to the "12th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", by 2015, China will strive to make solar power installed capacity reach 21GW (million kilowatts). By 2050, China's renewable energy power installation will account for the nation's power installed capacity. 25% of the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will account for 5%. In the next decade or so, the compound growth rate of China's solar installed capacity will be as high as 25%.

Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development", saying that "by the end of 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 21 million kilowatts (21 GW) or more, and the annual power generation will reach 25 billion kWh."

According to the "Planning", the installed capacity of new solar photovoltaic power stations during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is about 10 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation is 1 million kilowatts, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is about 10 million kilowatts, and the investment of photovoltaic power plants is on average per kilowatt. According to the calculation of 10,000 yuan, the distributed photovoltaic system is calculated at a cost of 15,000 yuan per kilowatt, and the total investment demand is about 250 billion yuan.

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