As an important reference, the mid-term performance forecast of listed companies has become increasingly unreliable. "Public Securities News" compared the interim results forecast and the official mid-year report found that there are 203 companies with comparable data, 51 actual performance exceeded the upper limit of the notice, there are 15 companies in the actual performance lower than the lower limit of the notice.
Some of the previews lost their "level"
As of August 4, a total of 371 companies in the two cities disclosed their interim results, with an average net profit increased by 127.93% year-on-year. Five companies such as Qinghai Gelatin and Ornate Family have increased their interim results by more than 10 times. 59 companies such as Taiyuan Gangyu and Baihuacun etc. Net profit increased by more than 100%. However, there are losses of more than 1000% in the interim results of companies such as Xiyi Group and Zinc Industry. The stocks of ST Guoxiang and other recent strong performers have lost more than 100% in the medium term.
Among the companies that have reported mid-term reports, 203 companies have issued advance notice of performance. However, the two companies found that the interim net profit growth rate of 51 companies exceeded the upper limit of the medium-term forecast, accounting for a quarter of the total; and the actual interim performance of the 15 companies exceeded the lower limit of the medium-term forecast, accounting for 7.38%. Although the listed company only gave a prediction range during the forecast, there are still more than 30% of the company's performance forecast is not "accurate."
Assuming that the advance notice is relatively early, listed companies may not be able to accurately grasp the performance. Therefore, after Volkswagen Securities removed companies that issued notices prior to June, 101 companies will announce performance announcements after June. Among them, the actual performance of 35 companies is higher than the upper limit of the notice, accounting for more than 30%; and the actual performance of 7 companies is lower than the lower limit of the notice, accounting for 6.93%. Although there was only less than one month remaining in the first half of the year, there were still large deviations in the forecast performance of listed companies, indicating that some of the pre-announcements were indeed “losing standardsâ€.
Individual stocks, the performance "growth" is the fastest number of shares in the instrument, the stock previously reported net profit loss of 1700%, but the actual loss of 1465.66%, up and down the rate of change of up to 234 percentage points. ST Xintai previously noticed that the net profit increased by a maximum of 50%, but the actual announcement of an increase in performance was 239.82%. The change before and after the change was 190 percentage points. Another example is the Eastern Zirconium Industry has reported a maximum growth of 80% of net profit, but the actual performance of an increase of 184.76%, before and after the change of 105 percentage points.
At the same time, there are some stocks "downward" changes are very fierce, such as * ST Languang earlier notice of a substantial increase of 26.96 times the net profit in the medium term, but the actual performance only increased by 1.3 times, this gap is quite ridiculous. Although Qinghai Gelpa reported a substantial increase of 12,962.72% in its disclosure performance, it was highly concerned by the market. However, its early performance forecast was 14478.41%, and its performance "falled" by 1516 percentage points. This "hidden" performance decline should be caused note.
The reasons for the misalignment of forecasts are why there is such a huge gap between the performance forecast and actual performance of these companies? Li Jianfeng, chief strategy analyst at Weida Securities, told reporters that there are four main reasons: First, the announcement was issued earlier, and some of the income was not included in the performance range or included in the performance range in advance; second, some companies’ financial affairs were abnormal during this period, such as disposal. Assets, purchase of assets, and liquidation of debts, etc. Third, there are major changes in the market environment, such as the price increase or fall in raw materials; Fourth, financial subsidies or fines lead to performance fluctuations.
For example, in the pre-announcement period, Minhe Co., Ltd. had a “changing faceâ€. On April 28, it forecast that it would turn a profit in the middle period to a profit, and its net profit was 50-60 million yuan. On July 7, it issued a revised notice again, raising its net profit forecast to 8300. 8.7 million yuan, net profit growth rate also increased to 322.61%, and July 19, when the official disclosure of the net profit increased by 416.71%. The explanation given by the company is that chicken prices have continued to rise.
In comparison, the more outrageous is the above-mentioned *ST Languang. The company on April 27 forecasted a net profit of 700,000 yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 521.12%. On July 15, the company issued an amendment notice, in the first half of the year. The profit was about 340 million yuan, an increase of 269644.66% year-on-year. The reason for the substantial increase in performance corrections was that the company successfully borrowed Ningbo Yinyi Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and the company's operating results for the first six months were included in the listed companies. However, on July 23, the company suddenly disclosed its mid-year report. Performance deteriorated sharply. Net profit increased by only 130.97% year-on-year.
Although *ST Lan Guang also forecast that the net profit for the period from January to September will increase by 157.30% year-on-year, I am afraid there are not many investors who dare to believe this “changing faceâ€. Li Jianfeng stated that there is such a big gap between the performance forecast of listed companies and actual performance, which makes us re-examine the effect of performance forecast. For a long time, investors have used performance forecasting as an important basis for participating in “finance businessâ€, but this may be used by some listed companies.
However, fortunately, because *ST Lan Guang has been suspended since February this year, it has prevented investors from being “fudged†and buying the shares. However, this kind of luck did not bring investors to Qinghai Gelato and believe in Taifeng. The actual performance of Qinghai Gelatin has been reduced by a factor of 15 compared with the previous notice. On August 1st, the stock price of the company has dropped continuously after the release of the interim report. Another example is convinced that Taifeng's earnings growth was 2121.79%, an actual growth of 2018.83%, a difference of 103% before and after, the stock reported that the stock price dropped 7.75% on the same day. Again, the actual performance of ST Industrial was 308 percentage points lower than that of the forecast, and the mid-year report was also a 5.02% drop.
If there are loopholes in the current system, if investors purchase stocks based on these advance notices that are not reliable, who will be responsible for the losses caused?
"Listed companies are certainly not responsible, because there is no clear provisions in this regard, and many situations can not be said to be deliberately listed companies, there is no evidence." Li Jianfeng said that currently only the small and medium-sized board in the two cities require a change in performance 50 At the time of %, it is necessary to publish performance forecasts, and companies that encourage 30% up-and-down changes in performance also advance notice in advance. As of August 4, 580 small and medium-sized board companies issued mid-term notices, accounting for 98% of the entire small and medium-sized boards. Not to mention that these notices are not 100% accurate, but such a comprehensive performance forecast is always beneficial to the judgment of the entire industry. At present, our securities companies measure the interim results of various industries based on the small and medium-sized boards.
It is understood that as early as March of last year, because of the inaccurate prediction of Goldwind's performance forecast, the inaccuracy of the performance forecast has triggered extensive discussions in the market and attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities. The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau conducted an on-site inspection of Goldwind Technology from September to October last year. In the "Regulation of Rectification Restricted" issued by the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, the company's operation and internal control, information disclosure, asset management, financial management and accounting in the three sessions, etc. Four aspects put forward the rectification requirements. In particular, in terms of information disclosure, the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau pointed out that there are corrections in information disclosure such as company performance forecasts, and the accuracy of information disclosure needs to be further improved.
“In fact, the most critical issue is that the data in performance forecasting has not been audited by a certified public accountant and the current regulations do not require advance notice to be issued after auditing. Therefore, many listed companies have repeatedly modified performance forecasting, and it is difficult to chase them. Li Jianfeng said that in the construction of the system, this should be a small loophole. If all the notices are audited, there is no problem with it, but at least it will be better than it is now.
Some of the previews lost their "level"
As of August 4, a total of 371 companies in the two cities disclosed their interim results, with an average net profit increased by 127.93% year-on-year. Five companies such as Qinghai Gelatin and Ornate Family have increased their interim results by more than 10 times. 59 companies such as Taiyuan Gangyu and Baihuacun etc. Net profit increased by more than 100%. However, there are losses of more than 1000% in the interim results of companies such as Xiyi Group and Zinc Industry. The stocks of ST Guoxiang and other recent strong performers have lost more than 100% in the medium term.
Among the companies that have reported mid-term reports, 203 companies have issued advance notice of performance. However, the two companies found that the interim net profit growth rate of 51 companies exceeded the upper limit of the medium-term forecast, accounting for a quarter of the total; and the actual interim performance of the 15 companies exceeded the lower limit of the medium-term forecast, accounting for 7.38%. Although the listed company only gave a prediction range during the forecast, there are still more than 30% of the company's performance forecast is not "accurate."
Assuming that the advance notice is relatively early, listed companies may not be able to accurately grasp the performance. Therefore, after Volkswagen Securities removed companies that issued notices prior to June, 101 companies will announce performance announcements after June. Among them, the actual performance of 35 companies is higher than the upper limit of the notice, accounting for more than 30%; and the actual performance of 7 companies is lower than the lower limit of the notice, accounting for 6.93%. Although there was only less than one month remaining in the first half of the year, there were still large deviations in the forecast performance of listed companies, indicating that some of the pre-announcements were indeed “losing standardsâ€.
Individual stocks, the performance "growth" is the fastest number of shares in the instrument, the stock previously reported net profit loss of 1700%, but the actual loss of 1465.66%, up and down the rate of change of up to 234 percentage points. ST Xintai previously noticed that the net profit increased by a maximum of 50%, but the actual announcement of an increase in performance was 239.82%. The change before and after the change was 190 percentage points. Another example is the Eastern Zirconium Industry has reported a maximum growth of 80% of net profit, but the actual performance of an increase of 184.76%, before and after the change of 105 percentage points.
At the same time, there are some stocks "downward" changes are very fierce, such as * ST Languang earlier notice of a substantial increase of 26.96 times the net profit in the medium term, but the actual performance only increased by 1.3 times, this gap is quite ridiculous. Although Qinghai Gelpa reported a substantial increase of 12,962.72% in its disclosure performance, it was highly concerned by the market. However, its early performance forecast was 14478.41%, and its performance "falled" by 1516 percentage points. This "hidden" performance decline should be caused note.
The reasons for the misalignment of forecasts are why there is such a huge gap between the performance forecast and actual performance of these companies? Li Jianfeng, chief strategy analyst at Weida Securities, told reporters that there are four main reasons: First, the announcement was issued earlier, and some of the income was not included in the performance range or included in the performance range in advance; second, some companies’ financial affairs were abnormal during this period, such as disposal. Assets, purchase of assets, and liquidation of debts, etc. Third, there are major changes in the market environment, such as the price increase or fall in raw materials; Fourth, financial subsidies or fines lead to performance fluctuations.
For example, in the pre-announcement period, Minhe Co., Ltd. had a “changing faceâ€. On April 28, it forecast that it would turn a profit in the middle period to a profit, and its net profit was 50-60 million yuan. On July 7, it issued a revised notice again, raising its net profit forecast to 8300. 8.7 million yuan, net profit growth rate also increased to 322.61%, and July 19, when the official disclosure of the net profit increased by 416.71%. The explanation given by the company is that chicken prices have continued to rise.
In comparison, the more outrageous is the above-mentioned *ST Languang. The company on April 27 forecasted a net profit of 700,000 yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 521.12%. On July 15, the company issued an amendment notice, in the first half of the year. The profit was about 340 million yuan, an increase of 269644.66% year-on-year. The reason for the substantial increase in performance corrections was that the company successfully borrowed Ningbo Yinyi Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and the company's operating results for the first six months were included in the listed companies. However, on July 23, the company suddenly disclosed its mid-year report. Performance deteriorated sharply. Net profit increased by only 130.97% year-on-year.
Although *ST Lan Guang also forecast that the net profit for the period from January to September will increase by 157.30% year-on-year, I am afraid there are not many investors who dare to believe this “changing faceâ€. Li Jianfeng stated that there is such a big gap between the performance forecast of listed companies and actual performance, which makes us re-examine the effect of performance forecast. For a long time, investors have used performance forecasting as an important basis for participating in “finance businessâ€, but this may be used by some listed companies.
However, fortunately, because *ST Lan Guang has been suspended since February this year, it has prevented investors from being “fudged†and buying the shares. However, this kind of luck did not bring investors to Qinghai Gelato and believe in Taifeng. The actual performance of Qinghai Gelatin has been reduced by a factor of 15 compared with the previous notice. On August 1st, the stock price of the company has dropped continuously after the release of the interim report. Another example is convinced that Taifeng's earnings growth was 2121.79%, an actual growth of 2018.83%, a difference of 103% before and after, the stock reported that the stock price dropped 7.75% on the same day. Again, the actual performance of ST Industrial was 308 percentage points lower than that of the forecast, and the mid-year report was also a 5.02% drop.
If there are loopholes in the current system, if investors purchase stocks based on these advance notices that are not reliable, who will be responsible for the losses caused?
"Listed companies are certainly not responsible, because there is no clear provisions in this regard, and many situations can not be said to be deliberately listed companies, there is no evidence." Li Jianfeng said that currently only the small and medium-sized board in the two cities require a change in performance 50 At the time of %, it is necessary to publish performance forecasts, and companies that encourage 30% up-and-down changes in performance also advance notice in advance. As of August 4, 580 small and medium-sized board companies issued mid-term notices, accounting for 98% of the entire small and medium-sized boards. Not to mention that these notices are not 100% accurate, but such a comprehensive performance forecast is always beneficial to the judgment of the entire industry. At present, our securities companies measure the interim results of various industries based on the small and medium-sized boards.
It is understood that as early as March of last year, because of the inaccurate prediction of Goldwind's performance forecast, the inaccuracy of the performance forecast has triggered extensive discussions in the market and attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities. The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau conducted an on-site inspection of Goldwind Technology from September to October last year. In the "Regulation of Rectification Restricted" issued by the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, the company's operation and internal control, information disclosure, asset management, financial management and accounting in the three sessions, etc. Four aspects put forward the rectification requirements. In particular, in terms of information disclosure, the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau pointed out that there are corrections in information disclosure such as company performance forecasts, and the accuracy of information disclosure needs to be further improved.
“In fact, the most critical issue is that the data in performance forecasting has not been audited by a certified public accountant and the current regulations do not require advance notice to be issued after auditing. Therefore, many listed companies have repeatedly modified performance forecasting, and it is difficult to chase them. Li Jianfeng said that in the construction of the system, this should be a small loophole. If all the notices are audited, there is no problem with it, but at least it will be better than it is now.