Analysis of Development Trends of Domestic and Foreign Markets in 2011

In 2010, driven by the apparent increase in the operating rate of phosphate fertilizers in the downstream and the continuous increase in international external disk prices, the domestic gambling market has emerged from the downturn and entered a recovery and recovery journey. ** Quotes rose from the low price of RMB 500/ton at the beginning of the year to the high of RMB 1600/ton at the end of the fourth quarter of the third quarter, showing a three-fold increase.

After observing, since 2005, there have been doubling or several times the rise and fall since 2005, an important reason is due to the shortage of domestic **, plus India, Brazil and other countries in the international market for resource contention with China Caused.

According to IFA's forecast that the global ** in 2011-2014 will generally exceed the demand, the oversupply in 2011-2013 will remain at between 2-3 million tons. In 2014, there will be a clear oversupply, mainly The reason is that the natural gas decommissioning project in the Middle East and China will be completed and put into production, and the supply will increase substantially by that time. Therefore, Lantuwang expects that the domestic shortage problem will not be fundamentally reversed until 2015.

As the domestic market's dependence on imports has consistently exceeded 50% in recent years, even more years have reached 67%. What impact will the international ** market have on China's domestic market in the future? How will the domestic market affect the nerves of the international market? The role of new economies in the future market will again reach a geometric point? These issues have caused rethinking in the eyes of international and domestic observers.

In addition, there are the following analysis of the ** market development trend in 2011.

Good factors:

1. In the first quarter of 2011, the international external disk did not reach the final intention, but the international suppliers had a hard-line attitude. Based on the strong support of the international fertilizer market, the current suppliers have increased the spot price of the recent ** to $200/tonne, relative to the current From the perspective of domestic prices, “upside down” is still serious, and it forms a strong support for domestic prices.

2. The consumption of phosphate fertilizers in countries such as the United States, India, and Brazil that increase demand for phosphate fertilizer due to rising food prices will help keep the price of phosphate fertilizers running at a high level. Phosphate fertilizer producers have maintained a high operating rate, which has increased the demand for pesticides; 2010 In the United States, the supply of domestic ** became tense and began to import solid ** and phosphate from the Middle East and Russia. In 2011, including Saudi Arabia’s large-scale phosphate fertilizer project, some new acid projects in China, Mexico, Brazil, and Jordan will also be put into production, and it is expected that the increase in demand will be 1.7 million tons.

Negative factors:

1. Macroeconomics In 2011, the means of the state to control inflation will be more stringent. The country will increase its efforts to control the stock market and the real estate industry. The government’s determination will be seen in recent frequent interest rate hikes. As for the control of agricultural product prices, the country has not relaxed. In 2010, the phenomenon of "garlic pods, beans, you play, Jiang you army, sugar Gaozong ..." prompted the country to control the price of agricultural products more severely; the basis of agricultural product price control is to reduce the cost of peasants' grain production. Therefore, it is basically impossible to say that the price of fertilizer has skyrocketed.

2. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of phosphate fertilizers, and the largest importer and consumer of phosphorus. In the past two years, China's imports accounted for more than 40% of the world's total trade volume. Has a great influence. In the first half of 2010, the closing of the fertilizer export gates is undoubtedly a huge disadvantage for chemical fertilizer companies. In the past six months, whether the domestic market can digest the huge capacity of fertilizer companies remains to be verified. At present, fertilizer dealers are hesitating to wait and see, as well as shaking chemical fertilizers. The price of the product. It is expected that the impact of export policy on ** demand in the later period will become more pronounced. The continuous increase in the prices of phosphate fertilizers may lead to a drop in demand for phosphate fertilizers, which in turn will curb demand.

In view of the above situation, some analysts believe that in 2011 the first half of the ** market will be a tepid cowhide trend. However, there will still be considerable profits throughout the year.