The photovoltaic market slows down, and the performance varies from country to country

With the constant adjustment of photovoltaic power generation policies by various governments, the market demand for PV will be more differentiated. In the next 2 to 3 years, although the world solar PV market is in the adjustment period, due to the increasing importance of new energy sources in various countries, the photovoltaic industry will still be in a growth period. If solar cell technology can make a major breakthrough, the market will enter a new round of rapid growth.

Global PV market slows down

The annual growth rate of the global photovoltaic market from 1995 to 2008 was as high as 50%. In 2008, the total installed solar battery capacity in the world reached 5,950 MW. However, since the second half of 2008, the global solar cell market has experienced a sharp decline in growth rate due to the international financial crisis. In 2009, the world's solar cell market scale was 7,200MW, a growth rate of only 21%, which formed a huge contrast with the market growth rate of 110.5% in 2008. At present, the world photovoltaic market is mainly concentrated in countries and regions with higher government subsidies.

The world's solar cell industry has not yet entered the commercialization stage, and market development is still mainly dependent on government subsidies from various countries. Germany and Italy have higher subsidies and are still the most important market. In 2008, Europe accounted for 82% of the demand, and in 2009 accounted for 73% of the share. From the perspective of countries and regions, Germany holds the top position in the market with more than 50% of market share. Spain's subsidy has weakened its influence. In 2009, the newly installed capacity accounted for less than 1% of the market. The United States and Japan have developed rapidly, each accounting for 8% of the market.

Major markets show different development trends

In general, the future photovoltaic market will fluctuate closely following the national subsidy policy.

1. The German market still has variables. In 2004, Germany began to vigorously develop the solar photovoltaic market. In 2008, the annual installed capacity of the German market was close to 1700 MW, making it the world's largest photovoltaic market. The rate of decline in government subsidized electricity prices in 2009 has changed from 5% to 6.5% per annum to 8% to 10% per year. However, in 2009, Germany passed legislation requiring that any building or refurbishment building be installed with a certain percentage of carbon-free power generation systems. After 2010, Germany's solar roof subsidy will be reduced by 16% on July 1st, and the subsidy for subsidies will be reduced by 15%. In the first half of the year, the German market demand will hit new highs, but it is expected that the subsidy will be lowered in the second half of the German market. Will drop sharply. In addition, the German House of Representatives lowered its subsidy policy and pointed out that if the total installed capacity exceeds 3,500 MW in 2010, an additional 2.5% reduction will be added, and after 2012, it will increase by 3%. In the future, the German market still has a lot of variables.

2. The Spanish market is difficult to pick up. In 2006, the Spanish government proposed the implementation of a mandatory on-grid tariff subsidy measure. Subsidies of 0.23-0.44 euros/kWh for photovoltaic power generation equipment were actually implemented at a subsidy of 0.44 euro/kWh. Affected by this policy, Spain’s installed capacity rapidly grew to 512MW in 2007. As the current subsidy policy is expected to expire in September 2008 and the new subsidy rate will be weakened, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power in Spain will greatly increase to 1300MW in 2008. In the second half of 2008, with the advent of the international financial crisis, the Spanish government reduced the online subsidy to 0.32 EUR/kWh and introduced a pre-registration policy to control the total installed amount. Affected by this, Spain's PV market was almost stagnant in 2009, with installations dropping by approximately 95% to only 65MW. It is estimated that the Spanish market will hardly pick up in the coming years.

3. The Italian market will experience a rapid growth in the short term. Since 2008, Italy has successively introduced a number of stimulus policies and regulations for photovoltaic energy applications. In addition to the preferential electricity price repurchase policies commonly used in European countries, it also provides subsidies for up to 20% of the total cost of photovoltaic applications, driving Italy. With the rapid growth of the market, the installed capacity increased from less than 100MW in 2007 to 338MW in 2008 and climbed to 720MW in 2009. However, the Italian government has decided to reduce PV subsidy by 20% in January 2011. It is estimated that there will be a rapid growth in the market before this, but after the subsidy is reduced, the Italian market will experience a sharp decline.

4. The US market will maintain a certain growth rate. In September 2008, the U.S. Senate passed a $18 billion new energy investment plan, and passed ITG's investment tax exemption policy for a period of 2-8 years, eliminating the market's concerns about U.S. PV demand. In 2009, the U.S. government’s support for the solar energy industry continued to increase: US$467 million was allocated from a total of US$787 billion in economic stimulus plans to promote the development and use of solar and geothermal energy; Difficulties, the US Department of Energy provided 535 million U.S. dollars in guarantees. These are important guarantees for the steady growth of the US photovoltaic market. Driven by this, in 2009, the capacity of the US photovoltaic market grew steadily and the newly installed capacity exceeded 480 MW. The U.S. government attaches great importance to new energy, including solar cells, and expects to increase support. It is estimated that the market will continue to increase in the future. speed.

5. The Japanese market will grow steadily. The Japanese government started the "Sunshine Roof Plan" as early as in 1997, and adopted the "New Energy Law" to adopt the "subsidy method" to promote the rooftop power generation plan, making Japan's photovoltaic power generation capacity ranked first in the world before 2005. As the subsidy expired in 2005, the demand for Japan's photovoltaic market has been weak since 2006, and negative growth occurred in 2007. In October 2008, Japan began trials of a greenhouse gas emissions trading system and decided to implement photovoltaic power generation in public elementary and secondary schools. By 2020, it plans to achieve 10 times the amount of photovoltaic power generation in 2005, and gradually promote the application of photovoltaic power generation in public facilities. Since January 2009, Japan has reintroduced a subsidy program for home use, with a subsidy of 70,000 yen per kilowatt. Driven by these policies, only domestic domestic solar manufacturers' domestic demand shipments reached a record 480MW in 2009. It is expected that the Japanese market will maintain steady growth in the future.