Construction steel prices fell nearly 4% in March, increasing production and increasing inventory pressure

Xinhua Online Hai March 28 (Reporter Li Rong) The steel market seems to show a pattern of “easy to fall and rise”, with funds, demand and market expectations all playing their respective roles. According to the latest market report provided by the well-known steel spot trading platform “Xiben Shinkansen”, the monthly decline of domestic construction steel prices in March is close to 4%, but the output of steel mills is still at a new high, which will only increase the later stage. The pressure of “destocking”.   According to institutional monitoring, since March, domestic construction steel prices have been basically in the downward channel. The West Link Index has fallen by 160 yuan per ton, and the monthly decline has been close to 4%; compared with the high point at the beginning of the year, the decline has exceeded 5%. The steel market showed the characteristics of “easy to fall and hard to rise”. The rising cost of capital and the difficulty of financing have increased the operational pressure of steel trade enterprises; the demand for steel (4786, 63.00, 1.33%) has been released less than expected, and the characteristics of “lighter off season” are obvious; the market has once speculated to push up the charge Prices have peaked since March, and the price of imported spot mines has fallen by more than 13%. The “bullish” mentality of the domestic traders at the beginning of the year has fundamentally changed, and the redemption of goods has become the “mainstream operation” of merchants. Relevant analysts said that although the inventory of construction steel has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, the rate of lightening is close to 6%, but the trend of steel mills' production increase is worrying. In February this year, the average daily output of domestic crude steel hit a record high. In late March, the average daily output of crude steel reached 1,944,800 tons, an increase of more than 2% from the previous month, and a new high in the ten-year production. At present, the “loss” on steel prices is mainly borne by traders. The first-line steel mills have not yet fully entered the price reduction channel. The conditions for large-scale production reduction by domestic steel mills are not yet available. The next step in the production of domestic steel is how to adjust and attract attention. Since the Spring Festival, the demand for domestic construction steel market has been “unsatisfactory”. Recently, the trend of “seasonal warming” has begun to appear, and may enter the first “steel consumption peak season” this year. However, compared with the level of previous years, there is still a gap. As for the rhythm and intensity of demand release, There is even uncertainty. The market expectation of steel mills is also being adjusted, and the mentality of “exploration, compliance, and wait-and-see” is complicated. Mainstream sheet companies have introduced pricing in April, Baosteel is flat, and WISCO, Anshan Iron and Steel, Benxi Steel, Shougang and other steel mills have lowered their ex-factory prices or increased their preferential margins. The pressure on contract organization of various construction steel manufacturers has increased significantly, and price cuts and replenishment have become the “mainstream pricing” in March. But by the end of March, there were signs of "bottom stabilization." According to some industry insiders, after the daily crude steel production in China hit a record high in February, the output in March still has a new high, and the space for the fall in April will not be too large. In the context of the expected release of demand is not optimistic, the continued growth of steel production will certainly increase the difficulty of “destocking”. Spot steel prices, raw material prices and ex-factory prices of steel mills have formed a “linkage down” trend. Although some of the charge prices have shown signs of “staged stabilization”, they still face greater downward pressure in the later period. In short, the substantial adjustment of the steel industry chain is far from complete, and the trend of the steel market will be “a short-term rebound in the overall downward channel”.

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