Technological evolution, market absorption and policy framework will determine the direction of the energy storage industry in the coming years. The clarification of the core links will be the key to whether the energy storage industry can successfully achieve commercial scale.
The energy storage industry entered the stage of commercial scale and dawned.
On July 13, the Ministry of Science and Technology formally issued the National 12th Five-Year Plan for Science and Technology Development. In the chapters such as “Power Grid and Energy Storageâ€, the “Planning†focuses on the development of large-scale intermittent power grids. Energy storage and other core technologies.
In fact, the bottleneck of the development of the three new emerging industries - new energy grid, smart grid, and electric vehicles - all point to the same technology - energy storage technology. According to the ideal situation design, new energy + smart grid + energy storage technology, will derive a perfect energy supply model.
The Chinese energy storage industry started late, but progressed rapidly. The government level began to focus
Since 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have set up special projects for this purpose, and all of them have been embodied in national research projects such as the “863†and “973â€.
“In the past few years, we went to wind farms and asked them if they need energy storage systems. They all said they don’t need to.†Yu Zhenhua, chairman of Beijing Pu-neng Century Technology Co., Ltd., chairman of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce's energy storage committee, told Energy magazine The reporter said, "Now, they have already realized the necessity of energy storage and have already turned to the question of 'What kind of technology is the most appropriate' and 'How to use specific'?"
Pu Neng is a star enterprise in the industry and has been continuously favored by VCs during the expansion process. However, there are not many energy storage companies that can enter the prey of risk investors. “As an investment company with industry background, we conducted in-depth industry research on energy storage. We concluded that the energy storage market is very large in the future. But our company is still waiting to see. The reason why there is no start, there are many reasons On the other hand, it is very likely that investments will be made in this area in the next 3-5 years." Vice President of Triumph Venture Capital ** Yi Jin told the "Energy" magazine reporter.
In the eyes of investors, technological evolution, market absorption and policy framework will determine the direction of the energy storage industry in the coming years. In other words, the clarification of the core links will be the key to whether the energy storage industry can successfully achieve commercial scale.
Technical dispute
The dispute over energy storage technology has a long history. According to “Energy Storage Industry Research ***2011†compiled by the Energy Saving Professional Committee of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, it shows that as many as 12 items of energy storage technology are available, and these 12 items can be divided into smaller pieces. item.
"The energy storage market is now coexisting with multiple technologies, but there is no perfect technology," Yu Zhenhua told the reporter. At the beginning of 2009, Purran acquired VRBPower, the world's vanadium battery leader, and became a star enterprise in the power storage industry. Vanadium batteries have the advantages of long life, large capacity, frequent charging and discharging, high efficiency, and high safety. However, their energy density is only 15-25 watt-hours/kg, and they occupy a large area and are not suitable for small-scale energy storage.
Another highly exposed energy storage technology, lithium iron phosphate battery also has the advantages of long life, low cost and high security. It is currently one of the most popular battery technologies for electric vehicles and also a popular candidate for power storage systems. one. Zhang Zifeng, chief engineer of BYD (26.48, -2.15, -7.51%) Electric Power Research Institute, told reporters that in terms of current energy storage technology, lithium iron phosphate battery is the most suitable technology for energy storage, and BYD has also conducted this Large-scale investment.
However, Yu Zhenhua apparently did not recognize the technology path. As far as the domestic lithium battery technology experience is concerned, there are still many solution challenges in making large-capacity energy storage, and its current cost does not yet have commercialization conditions. Yu Zhenhua believes that the only technology currently on the global market that can support large-scale commercial applications is Japan's sodium battery. However, the application of sodium* battery is also subject to many conditions such as high temperature, and the cost is still higher than the user expectations.
Prior to the booming of battery technologies such as vanadium and lithium, lead-acid batteries have a history of more than 150 years. Triumph, or even think that, "Although there are pollution and other environmental problems of lead-acid batteries, in terms of general energy storage batteries, lead-acid battery technology is relatively mature, and its cost is most in line with market needs."
As measured by maturity, pumped storage is the most mature energy storage technology recognized in the industry, but it is subject to geographical and resource constraints - it must have sufficient terrain height and is rich in water resources, pumped storage power stations can be established. What is more important is that with the rapid development of new energy, pumped storage is difficult to solve the basic problems in the industry.
Competing with many technological options, at least to illustrate the fact that there is no technology at the moment, stands out in terms of cost, safety, stability, and scale--which also results in the decision-making layer being unable to make up its mind and focusing on fostering its advantages. Options. Investors are also unable to choose between them. “Our company is not looking for investment right now. Although we have already assessed whether the industry has reached the right time, we need to be cautious,†said Guo Dongjun, director of Yuanji Environmental Protection Capital, who also reported to the reporter. Doubtful attitude.
Who pays for energy storage?
Pu Neng and Hui Neng are domestic energy storage dualists. Both of them are quite representative in the industry. They have successively held several rounds of **, and are highly favored by VC. But Zhang Zifeng, chief engineer of the BYD Electric Power Research Institute, criticized: “The concept of energy storage is now hotter than ever, but in fact it is not progressing quickly. At present, this piece is not profitable.â€
Pu-Neng was established in 2006 and one of its major financial investors is Northern Lights Venture Capital. According to industry sources, since its establishment six years ago, the company has been in a state of losing money. Since last year, it began to have its own product revenue, and this income comes mainly from the provision of energy storage technology for demonstration projects. But to do such a project, the profitability space is extremely pressing.
“We cannot even say that it lacks a buyer because it has not yet formed a strict commercial market.†Exorbitant costs are one of the most important factors hindering the industrialization process of the energy storage industry. Yijin said, “The reason why the energy storage market is not industrialized nowadays is that the most important reason is that the cost is too high. In practical applications, the cost of energy storage is not the same as that of the electricity generation cost of the grid, but several times. It is even 10 times.†The clothing input gives a data. If you make a short-term energy storage system in the U.S. power grid, the result of the market survey is that the price that can be considered for acceptance is 200 U.S. dollars per kilowatt-hour, and the large-scale market application is To drop to 100 US dollars / kWh, but the current world, in addition to the industry's concerns about lead-acid batteries, no one technology can achieve this cost.
The cost is not attractive to grid companies, which are the largest target customers for energy storage. The cost of energy storage not only daunts the grid, it also puts the cost pressure on the electric vehicle industry. Nikai Ming, President and CEO of Volkswagen China, told the Energy reporter at a forum that the current battery cost for electric vehicle energy storage is relatively high, about 500 euros/kWh, and he expects that the future cost can be reduced to 250 euros. / Kilowatt-hour or so.
Yu Zhenhua also frankly stated that the price of various batteries will face two thresholds in the future. In the first aspect, if the cost can be reduced to less than $500/kWh, the energy storage can be applied in a large scale in the power grid. To develop into one of the pillar industries for power generation, the cost of energy storage must be limited to less than US$300/kWh. Only at this level can the energy industry be adjusted and distributed energy be developed.
Not only is vanadium battery temporarily difficult to break through, according to data given by Zhang Zifeng, China's current lithium battery grid-level application cost is about 800 US dollars / kWh or so (including the control system), which is far from the cost of large-scale applications.
On the other hand, it is the formation of the buyer's market. The current energy storage lacks a buyer, and its expensive cost hinders the entry of the buyer. This closely linked link, when it can be solved, the key is to see when the cost of energy storage can come down.
Policy suspense
Although the development time of China's energy storage is relatively short, it is imminent that large-scale application of new energy and electric vehicles will be explosive. Since energy storage itself is short-circuited and market adjustment alone, it is difficult for storage energy to become commercialized in a short period of time. The industry generally believes that China's energy storage industry should at least obtain the same support policy as renewable energy to promote its rapid development.
At present, China's policies in the area of ​​energy storage are mostly guided in nature, and no supportive policies have been introduced involving specific indicators such as taxes, subsidies, and electricity prices. Take pumped-storage power stations as an example. “The current capacity of pumped-storage power stations in China has reached 19GW, but these power stations are currently not profitable. If the policies are tilted, then its development will be rapid and 36GW will be built in the future. An analysis by an industry expert said.
However, it is quite difficult for the support policy for energy storage. The supporting directions of the policies mainly include the power generation side, transmission side, power distribution side, and power consumption side. These four parties can all benefit from the application of energy storage. Therefore, for which side, the introduction mechanism involves the interests of other parties. The current mechanism focuses on Which party has no clear conclusion yet.
In addition, one fact that should not be overlooked is whether the state's support policy has reached the right time.
Zhang Zifeng believes that the time for the introduction of the policy has matured. He believes that the energy storage projects set up by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Science and Technology at the moment are paving the way for the country to issue specific energy storage policies. Zhang Zifeng expects that the country will introduce relevant policies in the next six months and the latest year. He also called for the introduction of policies as soon as possible.
Yu Zhenhua, who is also doing energy storage technology, has a different view. He believes that this policy will not be introduced until the short-circuit of energy storage itself is resolved. He pointed out that it is very necessary for the market to call for a policy. If you stand in the perspective of energy storage practitioners, he certainly hopes that the policy will be introduced as soon as possible. However, from the perspective of the industry, the introduction of specific national policies prematurely is not without advantages for the development of the entire energy storage industry. Because current battery technologies and application technologies for energy storage have obvious shortcomings, and the introduction of a policy is likely to lead to overheating, it will make the industry appear bubble, if the market does not meet expectations, the energy storage industry is very It's easy to go to the other extreme.
"The last thing I want to see is that after a specific mechanism has emerged, this market has a swarm of bees, and then the problem has come to a halt." Yu Zhenhua said, "So, I think that the country should do now is to support demonstration projects. The introduction of specific policies must wait until there is sufficient technology as support."