The “cold wind†of the European and American debt crisis has cooled China’s foreign trade exports – the transaction data of the 110th Canton Fair, which closed last Friday, showed that the turnover in the European and American markets dropped sharply. Industry experts said that with the continuous fermentation of the European debt crisis, the emerging markets that have a greater pulling effect on China's foreign trade will also experience a process of declining demand. If the European and American economies fail to fully recover, the Chinese exports will be released this winter and next spring. Will continue to "cold". The shrinking of European and American markets is the “wind vane†and “barometer†of China's foreign trade. The impact of the European and American debt crisis on Chinese exports has begun to appear at the 110th Canton Fair. Liu Jianjun, spokesperson of the Canton Fair and deputy director of the China Foreign Trade Center, said at the closing ceremony of the 110th Canton Fair that the number of buyers from the Canton Fair in Europe and the United States has increased, but there are more wait-and-see orders, and the actual transactions have dropped by 19% and 24% respectively. The turnover of non-essential items such as gifts, consumer electronics, and ceramics decreased by 9%, 11%, and 15%, respectively, reflecting the lack of confidence in foreign consumption; the proportion of medium and short orders within 6 months reached 88%, reflecting the expected caution in the international market. I dare not make long orders. Domestic companies are worried about raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations and are afraid to take long orders. The "First Financial Daily" reporter interviewed in the three exhibitions of the Canton Fair found that the demand in the European and American markets was sluggish, the domestic raw material prices rose too fast, labor costs rose, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and financing difficulties, all of which constituted foreign trade export enterprises. Great survival pressure. Not only toys, gifts, ceramics, clothes, shoes and other labor-intensive industries that are extremely sensitive to cost changes reflect meager profits, even electromechanical companies have indicated that export operating costs have risen and profits have shrunk dramatically. Zheng Jinming, marketing manager of Zhejiang Zhongli Group, which produces bicycle locks, told reporters that due to the impact of the European debt crisis, the “money bag†of European buyers has tightened, and the company’s European orders have been reduced by 20% this year. Zheng Jinming expects that the shrinking situation in the European market will be difficult to reverse in the second half of next year. Zhang Sizhen, general manager of Ningbo Yongfa Group Co., Ltd. told reporters that the company has been involved in the safe deposit box for 20 years, and its main sales market is in Europe. In recent years, due to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, the company has been “eaten†4 million to 5 million yuan per year. Chen Yu, head of the international trade department of Zhejiang Wuzhou Lighting Co., Ltd., said that for the gift export industry, which has only 3% to 10% of the profit margin, it must face the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the rise of workers’ wages. It is not an easy task to keep the meager profit from the continuous price reduction of the business. In the interview, the person in charge of a gift export company told reporters that some enterprises have not given up the pressure of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and rising labor costs, giving up some Christmas orders or transforming into other industries. In the footwear and apparel export industry, many European and American buyers have lowered their expectations for the future market, and in the case of stocks, they have reduced their purchases. Cao Xiaojian, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Haotian Co., Ltd. expressed cautiousness and pessimism about the economic situation and demand next year. He believes that in the case of a sharp reduction in orders in the apparel industry, the phenomenon of corporate closure will continue. "At least one-fifth this year. To two-fifths of clothing manufacturers can no longer continue to work." Cao Xiaojian said. Xiao Yufei, deputy director of the Center for International Economics and Trade of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies and professor of the School of International Economics and Trade, told this reporter that the European debt crisis and the high unemployment rate in the United States have led to a tightening of domestic demand. The impact on China’s foreign trade is positive and has already appeared. . First, it is reflected in the decline in the volume of orders. Second, the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of the economic growth of the whole world has dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with expectations. This will reduce the global trade volume by 3-4 percentage points, so China cannot "Outstanding in the body", China's future export situation is still relatively grim, and foreign trade exports in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year will continue to decline. China's import and export data in October this year is just around the corner. As the first month of foreign trade data in the fourth quarter, it is crucial to reflect the trend of import and export this year, so the outside world pays more attention to it. In fact, Chen Deming, the Minister of Commerce who accompanied President Hu Jintao to attend the G20 summit in Cannes, France, has vaguely conveyed his judgment on future exports in an interview with the media: "From January to October this year, trade increased by more than 24%, but the surplus decreased by 15%. %, the annual surplus is expected to drop sharply." Regarding the impact of the European debt crisis on China's trade, Chen Deming said that the current European debt crisis is mainly the government's sovereign debt crisis, which has little impact on the private sector and personal consumption. The impact is but not big. However, with the fermentation of the European debt crisis, the future impact on international and Chinese trade will continue to increase. Emerging markets also have downside risks. In this year's Canton Fair, in contrast to the weakness of the European and American markets, emerging markets are relatively active. After the earthquake in Japan, demand was released, and buyers and transactions increased by 29% and 28% respectively. New economies such as India, Russia and Brazil grew by 9%. Potential markets in Africa, Asia, Latin America and other potential markets increased by 39%. However, despite this, Xiao Yufei believes that emerging markets are also facing the risk of falling demand. At this stage, the demand for emerging markets is still strong, because the impact of the European and American debt crisis is transmitted to them, which requires a certain period of time, but if the impact spreads to Emerging economies, coupled with the recovery of the US and European economies, will not be underestimated. Xiao Yufei also said that one of the characteristics of China's import and export this year is that foreign trade expansion is mainly supported by price, while the growth rate of foreign trade is slowing down. If China's foreign trade goes into a period of falling prices, the entire export volume will inevitably fall. According to customs statistics, since the beginning of this year, China’s foreign trade has maintained a relatively rapid growth. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s foreign trade exports were 1,392.27 billion US dollars, up 22.7%; the trade surplus was 107.1 billion US dollars, narrowing 10.6%.
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