Domestic coal consumption demand is weak in 2013

At the fourth session of the "Energy, Power, and Development" forum recently held, Hao Xiangbin, director of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, analyzed the operation of the coal market in China in the past ten months and predicted that coal demand will not pick up significantly before the middle of 2013.

Hao Xiangbin predicted that the supply and demand of coal in the next few months will be an overall loose state, a period of heating and coal consumption peak season, coal overpressure will be phased to ease. It is expected that China's coal demand will rebound in the months of November and December, and fall back before and after the Spring Festival. Compared with previous years, coal demand is generally weak. The two major construction clusters that are expected to drive coal demand in the coming months will be real estate development and raw material heavy industry investment. Still weak, infrastructure construction will become the main force supporting coal demand. Under the influence of multiple factors, such as the loosening of domestic and foreign monetary policies and the restocking of enterprises, the future industrial production will stabilize, which will make the economic fundamentals of coal demand also stabilize.

“But due to the overall weak macroeconomic situation, the possibility of continued relaxation of monetary policy is relatively small, making the economic fundamentals of coal demand relatively weak compared with previous years.” Hao Xiangbin said.

Although the current coal production capacity is relatively sufficient, the transportation capacity can basically meet the terminal demand, and the increase in coal production has strong kinetic energy. However, as large coal companies consciously regulate coal supply and strengthen security control, it is still possible to judge the future coal supply chain growth. It is weaker than demand.

At the same time, Hao Xiangbin also expects that consumer demand in the first quarter of 2013 will also be significantly weaker, and it will be the most pessimistic period expected. Given the lagging effect of economic fundamentals driving coal demand, it is expected that coal demand will not pick up significantly before mid-2013. The winter season of coal consumption is expected to go into stock again, but it is difficult to fundamentally change the overall pattern of coal deposits.