In the latest report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth rate is again lowered. It is expected that the growth rate will be 3.3% and 3.6% respectively this year and next, which is 0.3% and 0.5% lower than the April report. The IMF warned in the report that the risk of further global economic slowdown is “surprisingly high†and the risk of a second recession has risen significantly. The economic growth rate of advanced economies will continue to decline, and the growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies will continue to slow down. The European debt crisis is still the most important threat in the global economy. "Despite the progress of regional policies, the Eurozone crisis has deepened." The global economic slowdown is increasing. In the report, the IMF will forecast the global growth rate this year. It was lowered from 3.5% to 3.3%, while the forecast growth rate in 2013 was only 3.6%. The report pointed out that the global economic recovery is still continuing, but the momentum has weakened. Due to the current low growth rate of developed economies, the unemployment situation cannot be significantly improved. It is expected that the growth rate of developed economies this year will be only 1.3%, which is lower than last year's growth rate of 1.6%. The cuts in public spending and the still fragile financial system have placed a heavy burden on the prospects of these economies. Compared with the forecast in April this year, the report lowered the growth rate of advanced economies in 2013 from 2.0% to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that many emerging markets and developing economies, the fundamentals remain strong, but growth in major emerging markets including China, India, Russia and Brazil will slow down. However, China will still play a major role in promoting economic growth. The IMF will cut its forecast for growth rates in emerging markets and developing economies this year to 5.3%. In 2013, the growth rates of emerging markets and developing economies were reduced from 6.0% to 5.6%. “The low growth and uncertainty of advanced economies will have an impact on emerging markets and developing economies through trade and finance, which originally had its own vulnerability.†IMF Chief Economist Oliver Bran Chad said. Xie Guoliang, head of economics and policy research at the Bank of China's Hong Kong Development Planning Department, told the Southern Reporter yesterday that the situation in emerging markets next year is not optimistic. It is expected that economic growth will continue to slow down because exports have not improved. If emerging markets want to maintain good growth, they need to rely on Stimulate domestic demand and investment measures, but these two pieces are not enough to support economic growth. The Eurozone remains the most important threat The European debt crisis remains the most important threat in the global economy. This situation has directly led to a further increase in global financial stability risks over the past six months, and has led to market vulnerability becoming extremely fragile. “Despite the advancement of regional policies, the Eurozone crisis has deepened,†the IMF pointed out. According to the IMF report, the euro zone's economic growth rate this year is -0.4%, and it is expected to achieve growth in 2013, reaching 0.2%. The report predicts that the probability of a recession in the Eurozone in 2013 will exceed 80%. The report also predicts that the US economic growth rate will be 2.2% this year, up 0.1% from the July report update; the US economic growth is expected to be 2.1% in 2013. The IMF expects that due to the slow progress of the European debt crisis, the European banking industry will need to unload 2.8 trillion US dollars of investment in the next two years to reduce risk exposure, which is an increase of 200 billion US dollars compared with the estimate of six months ago. This situation is bound to further worsen the overall credit environment in the euro zone. The IMF also pointed out that although Europe has taken many important measures to save the faltering economy, the details of the relevant bailout plan are still very insufficient, and it is difficult to win the trust of market investors. This will cause the euro zone to heat up due to capital flight and the disintegration of the euro zone. The economic downturn, such as a chain of negative market reaction, is facing a spiral of economic downturn. But there are also many scholars who are optimistic about the prospects of the euro zone. Chen Fengying, director of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said that although the road ahead is still rough, the most difficult period of the European debt crisis has passed. On the 8th, the launch of the ESM, together with the “financial contract alliance†and “bank supervision alliance†established in the past, has established a “firewall†at the institutional level. Xie Guoliang also believes that although the real economy of the euro zone is likely to be in a recession this year, the systemic risk should have been greatly reduced. "The European debt crisis has been developing in a good direction in the near future. Mainly because the European Central Bank has withdrawn from the unlimited purchase of bonds, it can effectively lower the interest on current government bonds. Recent measures are helpful to boost market confidence."
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