Recently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the “Scheduleâ€) aluminum futures, which have been shrinking and lightening operations, have not been significantly affected by the copper futures, which have also shrunk significantly but have witnessed wide fluctuations. However, the market price structure has been quietly There has been a reversal and it has become increasingly apparent that the prices are high and they are far lower than normal. Last year's end of April and early May last year, the copper market had also undergone this kind of transformation and maintained this rare reverse market structure. On April 28, the difference between the closing price of aluminum in each month's recent contract (May-September) was 60 yuan, 110 yuan, 100 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively, compared with the previous day (27 days). The price difference structure is 80 yuan, 80 yuan, 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and yesterday's spot month contract (Al0505) closing price of 16840 yuan / ton has been compared to Shanghai Yangtze River non-ferrous metal spot market flat water aluminum price discount of 70 yuan / ton. However, the inverse structure of aluminum price spreads that began to be revealed on April 12 cannot be compared with copper that has been continuously reversed for more than a year. On April 28, the spread between the previous spot copper spot monthly contract (Cu0505) and the other month contract (Cu0506) reached 1690 yuan/ton, which was a record-breaking compared to the price quoted by Shanghai Changjiang Nonferrous Metals spot market Pingshui Copper. 2110 yuan/ton. Market analysts generally believe that the reversal of the price structure of the copper market in the previous period was caused by the shortage of supply in the domestic copper spot market and the expectation of RMB appreciation. The quiet reversal of the aluminum market price structure subject to overcapacity in the spot market and overstocking of inventory should be related to the recent expectation of an imminent change in the electrolytic aluminum export tariffs and import processing tariffs for alumina imports. As electrolytic aluminum is a high-energy-consuming and highly-polluting industry, the national macro-control policies that have been increasingly strengthened in the past year have led to a long-term downturn in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market. However, the high alumina import cost as a domestic monopoly resource and the multiple increase in the electricity price after the power shortage are prominent cause spot prices in the electrolytic aluminum market to hover around the production cost. In fact, Cao Yushu, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that in the previous quarter, the actual aluminum loss in the electrolytic aluminum industry was as high as nearly 80%, and it was on the verge of losses in the entire industry. The issue of aluminum in the previous period was also due to the heavy selling of spot commercial value and the lack of necessary speculative components. The market performance was obviously weaker than that of copper with inverted price structure. However, at the same time as the domestic electrolytic aluminum market was faltering, the international aluminum market experienced strong demand for electrolytic aluminum after the global economy improved and the dollar continued to depreciate. One month ago, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month aluminum It also hit a new high of US$10/tonne in 10 years, while the previous issue of aluminum has not been able to break through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark since October last year. Foreign aluminum prices have continued to rise relative to domestic aluminum prices, although China, which is a major exporter of electrolytic aluminum, has suppressed the export of electrolytic aluminum, which has led to insufficient supply in the international market and domestic oversupply. However, at the end of last year, domestic producers and traders strongly expected that the country would adjust its electrolytic aluminum export tariff policy (eliminate the export tax rebate for electrolytic aluminum and impose an export tariff of 5%), resulting in surprise sales at the end of the year. This year, in the previous quarter, due to the expectation that electrolytic aluminum export tariffs will be significantly raised and import processing tariffs on alumina import tax rebates will be canceled, resulting in a 35% increase in exports of electrolytic aluminum. Lu Yuming, manager of the East Asia Futures Information Department, believes that the interaction between this imaginary electrolytic aluminium export and the country’s efforts to strengthen the macro-control of the electrolytic aluminum industry has actually fallen into a “vicious circleâ€. However, the recent excessive export of electrolytic aluminum and the associated significant increase in alumina imports have not only caused the international alumina market price to approach the historic price of US$500/ton again, but also caused a regional supply shortage in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market. As the largest aluminum processing site in China, Guangdong Nanhai, the sharp decline in the electrolytic aluminum inventories in the region has resulted in local spot price as high as 17,100 yuan/ton, and the arrival of summer peaks and the tension in railway capacity will make regional Shortages are difficult to change in the near future. This is also the reason why the aluminum market has an inverted price structure in the recent period. (Wang Xun)
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