Non-ferrous metals: long-term purchase of electrolytic aluminum deep-processing enterprises

Aluminum Industry Chain Investment Opportunities – Electrolytic aluminum is entering a rising cycle, and deep processing companies deserve continuous attention. We judge the following aspects of the aluminum industry chain as follows: Aluminium prices have shown signs of a peak, aluminum prices have entered a rising cycle, deep processing business in the golden period of development in the next three years. The next three years will be the centralized production phase of domestic alumina projects, and the alumina excess cycle will soon come. In micro-viewing, global alumina supply remained tight in the first half of the year, but as many projects are put into production in the second half of the year, the global alumina market will have a surplus of over 300,000 tons. Aluminium prices in the port have shown signs of weakening recently, and Chinalco’s new round of price adjustment at the end of April has been regarded as a last resort. Aluminium more than 3,000 US dollars mark, up space to open, increase 06,07 domestic aluminum prices forecast to 23,000 yuan / ton, 25,000 yuan / ton. The commodities boom has hit people, and copper and zinc and other metal varieties have seen large increases in the short term. Aluminum is expected to become the new darling of hedge funds. From a technical point of view, after Lun Aluminum broke through the $3,000 mark, the upside will open significantly. Investment advice: The main catalyst for investment: The aluminum price upside is about to open, and the electrolytic aluminum company's performance is highly sensitive to aluminum prices. Buy advantage electrolytic aluminum company: G Zhongfu, G Bao aluminum. The so-called dominant companies are those electrolytic aluminum companies whose performance is highly sensitive to aluminum prices and whose relative valuations are more attractive. We devaluated G Zhongfu and G-packed aluminum, and measured 10 times of dynamic PE in 2006, G Zhongfu and G Baolv had 100% and 50% upside, respectively. The deep-processing advantageous enterprises G Nanshan and Xinjiang Zhonghe have great potential for growth. Buying and holding is a better strategy. After 2007, G Nanshan will have a complete industrial chain of alumina-aluminum foil, which is second to none among domestic aluminum companies. Xinjiang Zhonghe is the leading domestic high-purity aluminum and electronic aluminum foil sub-industry, and some of its products are used in the military industry. Its industry status is very prominent. Shandong Aluminum's 06 EPS forecast was raised to 1.78 yuan (previously 1.6 yuan), and the holding rating was maintained. After Chinalco raised the price of alumina, Shannalu's profitability will further increase, and the company has the concept of privatization. Therefore, it maintains the rating of holdings.