On June 22, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Notice on Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates for Certain Commodities", and decided to cancel the tax rebate rate for some 406 taxable numbers such as steel and non-ferrous metal processing materials from July 15. Some insiders believe that this will certainly set off the wave of the steel industry, which will affect the ferroalloy market.
The steel products involved in the New Deal include large-scale steel (including H-beam), hot-rolled silicon-manganese alloy steel bar, ordinary plate, ordinary hot-rolled coil, ordinary hot-rolled narrow strip, ordinary cold-rolled narrow strip; 600mm galvanized narrow strip, less than 600mm hot-dip galvanized narrow strip, less than 600mm tin plate and less than 600mm other plate; some ordinary cold-formed profiles. Before the export tax rebate is abolished, except for the export tax rebate rate of 13 mm high-strength cold-rolled Puzhong coil, the export tax rebate rate for other varieties is 9%. According to industry insiders, although the tax rate policy does not directly point to ferroalloy products (most of the iron alloy products are subject to export tariffs), the indirect impact of the steel market transmission is inevitable.
Steel products are closely related to ferroalloys, export tax rebates are cancelled, exports are blocked, and the pressure on the domestic steel market will be increased, which will eventually be transmitted to the ferroalloy market. Among the 48 varieties of steel products that have been canceled for export tax rebates, some products consume large varieties and quantities of ferroalloys, such as hot-rolled silicon-manganese alloy steel bars, silicon-manganese alloy steel wires, and width alloy steels of less than 600 mm. Electroplated zinc narrow strips, etc., these steels in the process of smelting, rolling, the consumption of silicon-manganese and other iron alloys, if the implementation of the New Deal, exports blocked, will inevitably affect the silicon-manganese alloy market.
As far as the entire domestic steel market is concerned, some steel export tax rebates have been abolished, which has a greater impact on the steel market. In the past two months or so, the steel market has continued to slump, and prices have continued to fluctuate. Manufacturers and merchants are facing pressures of poor sales and increased stocks, forcing steel mills to cut steel ex-factory prices. The profitability of steel production enterprises has shrunk dramatically, and it has reached a loss situation. The implementation of the new policy of steel export tax rebate has made the situation of steel export more severe, which will further increase the pressure on the domestic steel market, prompt steel mills to reduce production and limit production, and some small and medium-sized steel mills will stop production. Affected by this, steel mills' demand for ferroalloys will be weakened, and the purchase price of ferroalloys will be lowered again, which will make it difficult for the ferroalloy market to get rid of the weakness and sluggishness in the short term.
According to industry analysts, the export volume of steel products that have been canceled for export tax rebate is not small. For example, from January to April this year, the cumulative export volume of steel products involving cancellation of export tax rebates was 5.15 million tons. It accounted for 39.6% of the total steel exports in the current period. From the perspective of export varieties, the large-scale steel, hot-rolled coils and plate are the largest exporters, and the export volume in January-April is 700,000 tons, 2.883 million tons and 1.102 million tons, respectively. It accounts for 20.7%, 6.1% and 5% of the current domestic production, which is a product that is greatly affected by policy adjustment. After the implementation of the new export tax rebate policy for steel exports, the export of this part of steel will inevitably increase, and the export volume will also decrease, which will affect the demand for ferroalloys.
Moreover, the current ferroalloy market is not booming, and the price is still in the downward channel of shocks. For example, the price of ferro-vanadium market continued to fall this week. The ex-factory price of (V50) fell by 5,000 yuan/ton, from 93,000 yuan to 96,000 yuan/ton; The market is still weak and the price is falling. The ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in the southwest region is 8,200 yuan to 8,400 yuan / ton (50 base price), down 400 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream end users are mainly digesting pre-inventory stocks, limiting or reducing mining. At the same time, reduce the purchase price.
The ferroalloy market was not in strong demand, sales were shrinking, and it was in a weak and depressed state. At this time, the introduction of a new tax rebate for steel exports led to the obstruction of steel exports, which would force steel mills to continue to adopt a “double limit†policy on the purchase of ferroalloys, that is, to limit the purchase volume. Limiting the purchase price is aggravating the weak operating iron alloy market.
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