OPEC October Oil Market Monthly Report Highlights

The uncertainty of the global economy, especially the economic uncertainty in the euro area, has led to significant volatility in oil prices. In September, the OPEC basket of oil prices fluctuates in the range of $102-112 per barrel. However, concerns about global economic growth have caused OPEC's package price to fall below US$100 per barrel in early October. With the strong dollar exchange rate and weak economic forecasts, oil prices fell further. In September, WTI fell to its lowest level in 10 months and fell below 76 dollars per barrel in the first week of October. At the same time, in early October, the settlement price of Brent crude oil in recent months fell below US$100 for the first time since the end of January. On October 10th, the OPEC basket of oil prices averaged US$104.67 per barrel.

Due to the economic slowdown in major countries, this report forecasts the growth of world GDP in 2011 to be 3.6%, and the growth rate of the world economy in 2012 was 3.7%. The forecast for economic growth in the United States in 2011 was 1.6%. The US economic growth forecast for 2012 is 1.8%. The forecast for the euro zone was 1.6% and 0.8% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. The forecast for Japan was -0.8% and 2.4% in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

It is expected that the demand for world oil day in 2011 will increase by 900,000 barrels, which means a decrease of 200,000 barrels from the previous report. This is because economic worries have affected OECD oil demand. China's oil demand is uncertain, and transportation fuel oil demand may decline. The growth in demand for 2012 is forecast at 1.2 million barrels per day, down from the previous report by 70,000 barrels.

Non-OPEC oil supply. Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 400,000 barrels per day in 2011, down from the previous forecast of 160,000 barrels, mainly due to lower-than-expected supply from Canada, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and Azerbaijan. Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2012. It is expected that OPEC's natural gas liquid products and unconventional oil will average 5.3 million barrels per day and 5.7 million barrels in 2011 and 2012, which means an average daily increase of 400,000 barrels per day. In September 2011, the average daily output of OPEC crude oil was 29.9 million barrels, an increase of 77,000 barrels from August 2011.

The OPEC report estimated that the world market demand for OPEC crude oil was 29.9 million barrels per day in 2011, which was in line with last month's report and was 100,000 barrels higher than the revised 2010. It is expected that the world market demand for OPEC crude oil will be 29.9 million barrels per day in 2012, which is about the same as in 2011, which is 100,000 barrels lower than the previous report.